000 AXNT20 KNHC 041747 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 147 PM EDT Wed Jul 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W, from 15N southward. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 10N. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers cover the area that extends from 12N southward between 28W and 40W. This wave was formed by energy that was left over after the current 40W tropical wave continued its westward movement. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 15N southward. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W from 19N southward, cutting across Puerto Rico. Precipitation: broken multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers, are from Hispaniola southward to South America between 63W and 74W. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W from 23N in Cuba southward. Broad cyclonic wind flow exists at 500 mb and 700 mb, from 20N southward between 80W and Central America. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the area that extends from 10N northward between 77W and the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to the 1010 mb low pressure center. The ITCZ continues from the 1010 mb low pressure center, to 06N41W and 06N51W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers from 06N to 12N between Africa and 26W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 12N southward between 26W and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in south Texas near 30N97W. A surface trough is in the coastal plains of Texas from the upper Texas Gulf coast to the middle Texas Gulf coast. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are in the coastal plains/coastal waters of Texas from 29N to 30N between 94W and 96W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 29N80W, off the coast of NE Florida. Upper level cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the 29N80W center covers the Atlantic Ocean from the Straits of Florida to 33N between 70W and Florida, and in the Gulf of Mexico from the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico northward between the west coast of Florida and the central coast of Louisiana. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. One surface trough is along 80W from 24N to 29N. A second surface trough extends from north central Florida beyond 32N80W. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will prevail in the NW waters, in association with the surface trough. A separate surface trough, just to the east of Florida, will move westward into the Gulf of Mexico tonight. The trough will shift across the northern waters, reaching the coast of Texas on Friday night. A surface trough will move westward off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, and enhance nocturnal winds in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico through Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section for information about the two tropical waves that are in the area. The 82W/83W tropical wave will move west of the area late tonight. The 66W/67W tropical wave will reach the western Caribbean on Thursday, and move west of the area by Saturday. The wind speeds will reach near gale force near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, from tonight through Friday night. An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave will reach the tropical N Atlantic Ocean forecast zones on Saturday, and the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 29N80W, off the coast of NE Florida. Upper level cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the 29N80W center covers the Atlantic Ocean from the Straits of Florida to 33N between 70W and Florida, and in the Gulf of Mexico from the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico northward between the west coast of Florida and the central coast of Louisiana. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. One surface trough is along 80W from 24N to 29N. A second surface trough extends from north central Florida beyond 32N80W. A 1031 mb high pressure center is near 37N37W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between Africa and the Bahamas. The 80W surface trough will move into Florida through tonight. A second trough will develop near Bermuda tonight, then shift NW of the area by Friday. High pressure will build across the region through the weekend. The wind speeds to the N of Hispaniola will pulse to strong each afternoon and evening for the remainder of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT