000 AXNT20 KNHC 031747 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 147 PM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W, from 16N southward, moving W 10 knots. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N southward between 30W and 40W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 19N southward, moving W 10 knots. The low level cloud field associated with this wave exhibits an inverted-V signature. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 08N to 15N between 50W and 60W, and from 08N to 13N between 60W and 64W in parts of the SE Caribbean Sea and Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago. The moisture that is associated with this wave will a modest increase in the chances for rainshowers for the eastern Caribbean Sea islands during the next day or so. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/78W from 22N in Cuba southward, across Jamaica. The wave is moving westward 20 knots. Broad cyclonic wind flow exists at 500 mb and 700 mb, from 20N southward between 80W and Central America. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers cover the area from 11N to 14N between 80W and 85W, in the Caribbean Sea and in Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea from 18N southward between 74W and 84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 10N22W, 07N30W, and 05N37W. The ITCZ continues from 05N37W to 05N50W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers from 04N to 13N between Africa and 30W, and from 08N southward between 40W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough curves from west central Alabama to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is along the coast of Mississippi and SE Louisiana near 32N88W. The trough continues from the low pressure center to 25N90W in the central Gulf of Mexico. Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow is on top of the trough/1014 mb low pressure center. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are along the Louisiana coast, from 28N to 30N between 90W and 93W. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 26N northward between 87W and 96W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the remainder of the area from 87W westward.' The rainshowers that are in the Gulf of Mexico from 87W eastward are related to an upper level 29N74W cyclonic circulation center, and the associated cyclonic wind flow, that are covering parts of the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. Expect rainshowers with thunder to be associated with the 1014 mb low pressure center and trough, as this feature moves W slowly, toward NE Texas through Wednesday. A surface ridge in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico will prevail through Saturday night. A surface trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through Saturday, and help to enhance nocturnal winds in the SW Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section for information about the 77W/78W tropical wave. The 77W/78W tropical wave will move west of the area on Thursday. A second tropical wave will move across the tropical N Atlantic and enter the eastern Caribbean Sea today. The second tropical wave will reach the central Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and the western Caribbean Sea on Friday. Fresh winds in the central Caribbean Sea will become strong, from Wednesday through Friday night. Near gale force NE winds are possible near the coast of Colombia on Thursday night and on Friday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 29N74W, about 240 nm to the NNE of the NW Bahamas. Upper level cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the 29N74W center covers the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico from 23N northward between 65W and 85W. A surface trough is along 32N71W 28N75W 24N77W in the Bahamas. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean from 20N to 32N between 65W and 86W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean from 24N northward between 57W and 65W. A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N48W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 29N to 33N between 46W and 55W. The current 32N71W 28N75W 24N77W surface trough will move across the NW Bahamas and over Florida on Wednesday and Wednesday night. High pressure will build in its wake. The wind speeds to the N of Hispaniola will pulse to strong each day during the afternoon and evening beginning on Wednesday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT