000 AXNT20 KNHC 022356 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 756 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending from 17N30W to 03N31W and is moving W at around 15 to 20 kt. A surge of moisture is noted in the TPW product in association with the wave. Saharan dust is embedded in the northern portion of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ from 03N to 08N between 26W and 32W. A tropical wave has an axis extending from 19N51W to 05N52W. This wave is moving W around 15 to 20 kt. This wave coincides with an inverted-V signature in total precipitable water data and visible satellite imagery. At this time, the wave is surrounded by Saharan dust which is limiting convection in the vicinity of this wave. A cluster of moderate convection is noted from 10N-13N between 50W-52W. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean has an axis extending from 19N73W to 10N76W, moving westward at 20 to 25 knots. This wave displays a low amplitude inverted-V signature evident in total precipitable water satellite imagery. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are near the southern end of the wave axis over Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW over the Atlantic Ocean from Senegal on the coast of Africa near 13N17W to 07N25W to 06N36W. The ITCZ extends from 06N36W to 05N50W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are within 180 nm of either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis E of 43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A trough extends from a weak surface low of 1015 mb located near 29N87W to 27N90W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms area noted near the trough and low. Moderate to locally fresh winds are over the NE gulf near this system. The low and trough will gradually shift W toward Louisiana tonight. The remainder of the Gulf remains under the influence of a weak high pressure ridge extending W from the Atlantic. The ridge is producing light to gentle anticyclonic flow and seas of 1-3 ft over the southeastern Gulf, and gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 3-5 ft over the western half of the Gulf. This weak high pressure pattern will change little through mid-week. A surface trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through Thu, enhancing nocturnal winds over the SW Gulf through this period. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Please see the Tropical Waves section for details. Latest scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong winds occurring across the south- central Caribbean south of 15N between 70W and 78W, while mainly moderate to fresh trades prevail across the remainder of the basin S of 18N. Light to gentle winds are noted over the NW Caribbean. A surface ridge will remain north and northeast of the Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic waters through the next few days. The fresh to strong winds across the south- central Caribbean will gradually diminish through Tue, before strengthening again on Wed. Convection continues to intermittently flare up over the SW Caribbean mainly in the vicinity of the monsoon trough, which is just north of Panama along 09N-10N. This pattern will remain in place for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the waters between the coast of West Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. A surface trough extended from 33N55W to a 1015 mb surface low pressure located near 28N67W to 25N74W. Abundant cloudiness with embedded showers are seen over the waters E of the Low/trough from 24N-28N between 58W-65W. Farther E, another trough is analyzed from 33N49W to 28N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within about 180 nm E of the trough axis. Surface high pressure located NW of the Azores extends a ridge across the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic forecast waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge. GOES-16 RGB Geocolor imagery continues to show an extensive area of African dust that primarily extends from the west coast of Africa to the northeastern Caribbean. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR