000 AXNT20 KNHC 021727 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 127 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending from 17N29W to 05N29W and is moving W at around 15 to 20 kt. Satellite imagery depicts a total precipitable water surge in conjunction with this wave. Saharan dust is embedded in the northern portion of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 09N between 26W and 32W. A tropical wave has an axis extending from 19N50W to 05N51W. This wave is moving W around 15 to 20 kt. This wave coincides with an inverted-V signature in total precipitable water data and visible satellite imagery. At this time, the wave is surrounded by Saharan dust which is inhibiting almost all of the deep convection in the vicinity of this wave, except for isolated moderate convection within 60 nm of the wave axis S of 12N. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean has an axis extending from 19N70W to 05N70W, moving westward at 25 to 30 knots. This wave displays a low amplitude inverted-V signature evident in total precipitable water satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection associated with the wave is noted over Venezuela, and from 11N to 15N between 70W and 75W, while Saharan dust surrounding the northern portion of the wave is inhibiting convection over the north-central Caribbean. A tropical wave extends from the extreme SW Gulf of Mexico near 20N95W to SE Mexico, to the Eastern Pacific, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the wave axis over the Gulf of Mexico and SE Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW over the Atlantic Ocean from Senegal on the coast of Africa near 13N17W to 07N25W to 06N36W. The ITCZ extends from 06N36W to 05N50W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are within 180 nm of either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis E of 43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from a 1015 mb low centered near 30N87W over the northeastern Gulf to near 27N89W. Scattered moderate convection is present N of 26N between 85W and 91W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are over the NE gulf near this system. The low and trough will gradually shift W toward Louisiana tonight. A tropical wave is clipping the extreme SW Gulf. Please see the special features section for more details. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a weak high pressure ridge extending W from the Atlantic. The ridge is producing light to gentle anticyclonic flow and seas of 1-3 ft over the southeastern Gulf, and gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 3-5 ft over the western half of the Gulf. This weak high pressure pattern will change little through mid- week. A surface trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through Thu, enhancing nocturnal winds over the SW Gulf through this period. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean and central America. Please see the Tropical Waves section for details. A scatterometer pass from this morning indicated fresh to strong winds occurring across the south- central Caribbean south of 15N between 70W and 78W, while mainly moderate to fresh trades prevail across the remainder of the basin S of 18N. Light to gentle winds are noted over the NW Caribbean. A surface ridge will remain north and northeast of the Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic waters through the next few days. The fresh to strong winds across the south- central Caribbean will gradually diminish through Tue, before strengthening again on Wed. Convection continues to intermittently flare up over the SW Caribbean mainly in the vicinity of the monsoon trough, which is just north of Panama along 09N-10N. This pattern will remain in place for the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the waters between the coast of West Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. As of a 1402 UTC scatterometer pass, a surface trough extended from 32N66W to a 1015 mb surface low near 28N67W to 26N70W to 26N75W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of a line from 27N68W to 25N71W to 25N76W, and from 24N to 31N between 57W and 68W. An upper low is centered near 29N51W while its surface reflection in the form of a surface trough extends from 32N48W to 27N50W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 26N to 32N between 45W and 55W. Surface high pressure located NW of the Azores is in control of the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic discussion waters with generally fair weather. Moderate to fresh tradewinds cover the central and eastern discussion waters S of 22N and N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate winds cover the waters from 22N to 32N E of 60W. GOES-16 RGB Geocolor imagery continues to show an extensive area of African dust that primarily extends from the west coast of Africa to the northeastern Caribbean. The Saharan dust occasionally obscures sky conditions near the Caribbean islands. The dust turns skies hazy, reducing visibility and can result in poor air quality. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto