000 AXNT20 KNHC 290538 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 138 AM EDT Fri Jun 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 21W from 02N-16N, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is noted in model diagnostics. Scattered showers are from 06N-11N between 14W-22W. An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 18N39W to 03N44W, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. A Caribbean tropical wave is entering the eastern portion of the basin with axis from 19N63W to 04N65W, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers are mainly south of 12N affecting the northern portion of South America between 58W-68W. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 19N84W to 07N84W, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is affecting Central America and adjacent waters south of 13N between 80W-88W. A tropical wave is moving through southwest Mexico and the EPAC with axis along 98N. Scattered showers are noted with this wave between 96W-102W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa along 19N through 18W. The ITCZ begins near 07N22W to 07N41W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 10N46W to 06N57W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave along 21W, scattered showers are noted along the boundaries between 24W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 26N88W. A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving over the Florida Panhandle and some of this activity is reaching the adjacent waters north of 29N and east of 88W. Little change is expected in this pattern through early next week. A surface trough will emerge off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, enhancing nocturnal winds in the SW Gulf of Mexico through Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper-level cyclonic flow covers the basin centered over Hispaniola at this time. With this, scattered showers are noted over Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and Puerto Rico, and adjacent waters. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds just north of Colombia from 11N-14N between 70W-76W. Another area of strong winds is noted between the northwest Hispaniola's coast and the southern Bahamas between 71W-74W. The 84W tropical wave will continue moving across Central America today. The tropical wave along 65W will reach eastern Puerto Rico today. Neither of these waves appear to have potential for tropical cyclone formation at this time. Strong breeze to near gale-force winds in the central Caribbean Sea will diminish on Sunday and Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface anticyclonic flow covers the Atlantic Ocean. A surface ridge is extends across the basin anchored by a 1035 mb high centered near 43N44W. Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. The broad surface high pressure across the west-central Atlantic Ocean will weaken gradually on Sunday-Monday. Benign marine conditions are expected across the region through early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA