000 AXNT20 KNHC 262359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 759 PM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed from 07N to 20N along 21W. Isolated moderate convection is observed north of the low within 120 nm either side of the wave axis. Expect a fresh northeast to east to southeast wind shift along the wave axis as it progresses westward across the tropical Atlantic. A tropical wave is analyzed along 41W from 02N to 18N, and is estimated to be progressing west at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. A tropical wave is analyzed across the central Caribbean and South America along 71W from 06N to 19N, and is moving west about 15-20 kt. Isolated showers are currently observed over the Caribbean waters mainly along the south coast of Hispaniola and over western Venezuela and eastern Colombia. A tropical wave is progressing west through the western Caribbean and is currently analyzed along 83.5W and extends south from western Cuba across Panama into the east Pacific near 05N82W. Scattered to numerous showers and tstms are enhanced along the wave south of 16.5N and west of 80W. This tropical wave has the potential to develop into an east Pacific tropical cyclone later this week. A tropical wave is analyzed across the southwest Gulf of Mexico from 23N95W and extends south across eastern Mexico into the east Pacific near 07N95W. Scattered showers accompany the wave over the Gulf of Mexico. This wave will likely soon become difficult to track as it merges into a broad low pressure over the East Pacific to the south of eastern Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends southwest off the coast of western Africa at 19N16W to 06N30W where an ITCZ forms and continues northwest through a tropical wave at 08N41W, then turns southwest to the coast of South America at 05N52W. Aside from the convection described in the Tropical Wave section above, scattered showers are observed within 150 nm south of the boundaries between 15W- 33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level cyclone is centered over northeast at 26N103W. Upper diffluence east of this cyclone is supporting scattered showers and tstms along the eastern coast of Mexico from 18N to 23N. As the upper cyclone continues northwestward and further inland the associated convection should diminish. An east to west surface ridge extends across the northern coastal plains. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed east of 92W. A surface trough will develop during the late afternoons and early evenings over the Yucatan Peninsula, then shift westward across the southwest gulf waters during the overnight hours and dissipate by late each morning. The trough will be accompanied by a fresh to locally strong wind shift each night. CARIBBEAN SEA... See tropical wave section above for details on two waves progressing west through the Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted across the southwest Caribbean, generally from 11N to 18N between 68W and 82W. These trades will diminish from the north, but continue across the southwest Caribbean this week. Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong through Tue night in the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A quasi-stationary 1022 mb surface high is centered near 29N57W with a ridge extending westward to across north Florida. Moderate to fresh trades are noted across the tropics with little change forecast this week. Strong winds are forecast for the next few days during the late afternoons into the early evening hours along the north coast of Hispaniola. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Nelson/ERA