000 AXNT20 KNHC 261759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 145 PM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed from 04N to 20N along 19.5W with a 1009 mb surface low along the wave at 15.5N. Isolated moderate convection is observed north of the low within 120 nm either side of the wave axis. Expect a fresh northeast to east to southeast wind shift along the wave axis as it progresses westward across the tropical Atlantic. A tropical wave is analyzed along 40W from 03N to 17N, and is estimated to be progressing west at 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 03N to 09N within 150 nm either side of the wave axis. A tropical wave is analyzed across the east Caribbean and South America along 70.5W from 03N to 18N, and is moving west about 18 kt. Only isolated showers are currently observed over the Caribbean waters mainly along the south coast of Hispaniola. Strong clusters of convection that accompanied the wave over western Venezuela and eastern Colombia have matured and are now weakening. A tropical wave is progressing west through the western Caribbean and is currently analyzed along 81.5W and extends south from western Cuba across Panama into the east Pacific near 01N81.5W. Scattered showers and tstms are enhanced along the wave near 18.5N, and across the southwest Caribbean to the southwest of a line from 14.5N83W to 10N76W. This tropical wave has the potential to develop into an east Pacific tropical cyclone later this week. A tropical wave is analyzed across the southwest Gulf of Mexico from 21.5N93W and extends south across eastern Mexico into the east Pacific near 05N93W. Only isolated showers currently accompany the wave over the Gulf of Mexico. This wave will likely soon become difficult to track as it merges into a broad low pressure over the East Pacific to the south of eastern Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends southwest off the coast of western Africa at 16.5N16W through a 1009 mb surface low at 15.5N19W to 05.5N31W where an ITCZ forms and continues northwest through a tropical wave at 06N40W, then turns southwest to the coast of South America at 04N51.5W. Except as previously described near the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 180 nm of 07.5N13.5W, within 150 nm either side of a line from 02N21W to 06N30W. Isolated moderate convection is observed elsewhere within 75 nm either side of a line from 04N35W to 09N44W to 07N58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level cyclone is centered over northeast at 26N103W. Upper diffluence east of this cyclone is supporting scattered showers and tstms along the eastern coast of Mexico from 18N to 23N. As the upper cyclone continues northwestward and further inland the associated convection should diminish. An east to west surface ridge extends across the northern coastal plains. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed east of 92W. A surface trough will develop during the late afternoons and early evenings over the Yucatan Peninsula, then shift westward across the southwest gulf waters during the overnight hours and dissipate by late each morning. The trough will be accompanied by a fresh to locally strong wind shift each night. CARIBBEAN SEA... See tropical wave section above for details on two waves progressing west through the Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted across the southwest Caribbean, generally from 11N to 18N between 68W and 82W. These trades will diminish from the north, but continue across the southwest Caribbean this week. Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong through Tue night in the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A quasi-stationary 1023 mb surface high is centered near 29N52W with a ridge extending westward to across north Florida. Moderate to fresh trades are noted across the tropics with little change forecast this week. Strong winds are forecast for the next few days during the late afternoons into the early evening hours along the north coast of Hispaniola. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Nelson