000 AXNT20 KNHC 251802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with strong signature has been added to the surface analysis over western Africa from 02N to 20N along 11W. A squall line precedes the wave by about 90 nm, and a cluster of strong convection has moved off the African coast to within 75 nm of 09N16W. The longitude of wave axis will likely be adjusted as it passes sites of radiosonde launches over the next few days. A tropical wave is analyzed along 31.5W from 02N to 18N, and is estimated to be progressing west at 18 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 04N to 14N within 210 nm either side of the wave axis. A tropical wave is analyzed across the east Caribbean from 09N to 20N along 63W and is moving west about 18 kt, but should soon begin to slow it's forward progression as it continues southwest of the a surface high near 30N52W. Isolated showers and tstms are observed within 210 nm of the wave. A tropical wave is moving west through the central Caribbean and is currently analyzed along 74W and extends north across the Mona Passage and south across northern Colombia. Isolated showers and tstms are enhanced near the wave across northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia, with a few showers and tstms also noted along the wave at 17N. Another tropical wave is along 87.5W and will pass across the Yucatan Peninsula and portions of central America late today. Only isolated showers currently accompany the wave. This wave will likely lose identity on Tue as it merges into a broad low pressure over the East Pacific along 95W where conditions are expected to become favorable for tropical cyclone formation late this week. Numerous strong convection is currently observed across the far southwest Caribbean between two tropical waves. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends southwest off the coast of western at 15N16W to 05N24W where an ITCZ forms and turns northwest through the tropical wave at 06N31W, then turns southwest to the coast of South America ta 04N52W. Except as previously described near the tropical waves, isolated moderate to occasionally strong convection is observed from 02.5N to 09.5N between 10W and 60W, and within 90 nm of 00N41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level cyclone is centered over Mexico near 22N100W. Upper diffluence e of this cyclone is supporting scattered showers and tstms over the southwest gulf waters, generally southwest of a line from 24N97W to 19N95W. The upper cyclone is forecast to continue westward through Tue while continuing to enhance convection across the western gulf. An east to west surface ridge extends from the Florida Big Bend to northeast Texas. Isolated showers and tstms are observed north of 23N east of 88W and south of the ridge axis. CARIBBEAN SEA... See tropical wave section above for details on three waves progressing west through the Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted across the Caribbean south of 18N east of 80W, with moderate to locally fresh easterly flow north of 18N. The trades will diminish across the east Caribbean through Tue night, but continue across the southwest Caribbean. Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong through Tue night in the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A quasi-stationary 1026 mb surface high is centered near 31N54W with a ridge extending westward to across north Florida, and a ridge extending southeast to near 23N33W. Moderate to fresh trades are noted across the tropics west of 45W with little change forecast through mid week. Strong winds are forecast for the next few days during the late afternoons through early evening hours along the north coast of Hispaniola. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Nelson