000 AXNT20 KNHC 242354 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 754 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 21N from 02N to 19N, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection associated to this wave is noted from 06N to 11N between 20W and 24W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W from 04N to 19N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 50W and 55W. The axis of a tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean near 65W, and extends from Venezuela northward toward Puerto Rico, moving W at 20 kt. Isolated showers are near the wave's axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W from Cuba to Panama. Scattered showers with embedded tstms are noted across much of Cuba and the surrounding waters. This wave will move across western Cuba tonight into Mon, and will continue to enhance convection over the island. Another tropical wave is near 91W, and extends from the SW Gulf into the eastern north Pacific region. This wave is currently generating scattered showers and tstms over portions of southern Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off western Africa near 16N16W to 07N21W to 06N30W. The ITCZ continues from 06N30W to 04N40W to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 25W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level low is centered near 21N98W. A large area of showers and tstms is within about 270 nm NE semicircle of the low center, covering mainly the Gulf waters from 21N-26N between 93W- 97W. The low will drift westward into Mexico while weakening inland by Tue. This system will continue to enhance convection across the western Gulf, and likely across the states of Tamaulipas and Veracruz in Mexico on Mon, as well as over southern Texas. A 1019 mb high is over the eastern Gulf near 27N85W with a ridge extending westward toward the coast of Texas. The ridge will prevail over the northern Gulf waters through Tue, supporting moderate to fresh SE return flow over the northwestern Gulf. A trough moving west off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each night will further enhance overnight winds over much of the southwestern Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... A series of tropical waves will move westward across the tropical north Atlantic and Caribbean Sea through the middle of next week. Currently, two tropical waves are propagating across the basin, one moving across the western Caribbean, and another tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please, see Tropical Waves section for more details. Expect increasing showers and isolated thunderstorms in association with the passage of these tropical waves. Fresh to strong winds are noted across the central and eastern Caribbean, as well as the Gulf of Honduras, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Sea heights of near 11 ft are seen over the south-central Caribbean based on altimeter data. Winds are forecast to reach near gale force off Colombia at night. Little change is expected through the middle of the week. Areal coverage of fresh to strong trades will decrease afterwards as high pressure north of the area weakens. Seas are forecast to build to 11-13 ft over the south-central Caribbean by early Mon. Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong winds the next couple of nights in the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1028 mb centered near 31N54W extends a ridge westward across the forecast area. Fresh to strong trade are noted E of the Lesser Antilles to about 50W. Altimeter data indicate sea heights of near 10 ft within this area of winds. This high pressure will remain nearly stationary through Tue while weakening. As result, the pressure gradient will loosen with diminishing winds and subsiding seas E of the Lesser Antilles by Tue. Nocturnal winds will continue to pulse to fresh to strong the next several nights off Hispaniola. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AL/GR