000 AXNT20 KNHC 240525 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 125 AM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near the west coast of Africa along 18W from 03N to 18N. Scattered moderate convection associated to this wave is noted from 05N to 14N between 15W and 23W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 49W from 01N to 19N, moving W at 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 44W and 50W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 61W from Venezuela northward to 21N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 60W and 64W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 77W from 10N-21N. This wave, in conjunction with an upper level trough extending across the SE Bahamas to the central Caribbean, is producing a large area of showers and tstms over eastern Cuba, western Hispaniola and the regional waters. The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W, and extends from the SE Gulf across central America into the eastern north Pacific region. Scattered to showers and tstms are noted across the Yucatan peninsula as well as Guatemala. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off western Africa near 18N17W to 06.5N26.5W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N26.5W to 03N44W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 26W and 41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level low centered near 21N98W is helping to induce some showers and tstms across the SW Gulf as well as portions of southern Mexico. The low will drift westward through Sun night, and continue to enhance convection across this area. A ridge of high pressure prevails across the northern waters. Southeast return flow will prevail over the western Gulf the next several days. A trough will move west off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each night, which will enhance overnight winds over much of the southwestern gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are propagating across the area, one moving across the central Caribbean, and another tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please, see Tropical Waves section for more details. Expect increasing showers and isolated thunderstorms in association with the passage of these tropical waves. Fresh to strong winds prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean, as well as the Gulf of Honduras, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Little change is expected through early next week. Areal coverage of fresh to strong trades will decrease afterwards as high pressure north of the area weakens. Seas are forecast to build to 10-12 ft over the south- central Caribbean with the strongest winds. Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong winds the next couple of nights in the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1028 mb centered near 31N51W extends a ridge westward across the forecast area. Fresh to locally strong trade winds prevail along the southern periphery of the ridge, S of 20N W of 40W. This high pressure will slowly shift westward tonight, then remain nearly stationary near 30N55W while weakening through Tue night. The weakening of the area of high pressure will loosen the pressure gradient, with diminishing winds and subsiding seas over this area through early this upcoming week. Nocturnal winds will continue to pulse to fresh to strong the next several nights off Hispaniola. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AL