000 AXNT20 KNHC 230529 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 129 AM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near the west coast of Africa. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated to this wave is noted from 04N to 10N between 15W and 21W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 39W from 03N to 20W. Isolated moderate convection is noted at the base of this wave from 01N to 03N between 36W and 41W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 56W from 02N to 18N, moving W at 20 kt. Isolated moderate to strong convection was noted from 05N to 10N between 50W and 60W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 69W from the coast of Venezuela to eastern Hispaniola, moving W at 10-15 knots. This wave, in conjunction with an upper level trough, is helping for active convection over the northeastern Caribbean east of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W extending from the eastern north Pacific across western Panama to western Cuba. The wave is helping for enhanced convection over the NW Caribbean west of 78W, and the western half of Cuba. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off western Africa near 16.5N16W to 15.5N18.5W to 06N26W. The ITCZ continues from 06N26W to 03.5N41W to the coast of NE Brazil near 04N51W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 42W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominates the Gulf waters, producing gentle to moderate winds with seas of 3-5 ft over the western Gulf, and seas of 3 ft or less across the eastern Gulf. Weak ridging will persist from the southeast Gulf to the coast of Texas through early next week. SE return flow will increase slightly over the western Gulf between the ridge and weak low pressure over northern Mexico starting tonight. An upper level low near 20N95.5W is helping produce active convection over the Yucatan peninsula and southern Mexico as well as the forecast waters S of 22N west of the Yucatan peninsula to the Bay of Campeche. A surface trough will develop in the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon, then move westward across the SW Gulf during the overnight hours before dissipating over the SW Gulf in the morning hours. The trough will be accompanied by fresh to occasionally strong east to southeast winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Another tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. Please, see Tropical Waves section for more details. Expect increasing showers and isolated thunderstorms in association with the passage of these tropical waves. Trade winds over the south central Caribbean will strengthen and expand in areal coverage across the basin through early next week as high pressure builds across the central Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1029 mb centered near 32N43W extends a ridge westward across the forecast area. Fresh trades are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge. This high pressure will slowly shift westward through tonight, then remain nearly stationary near 30N55W through Tue night. The tightening pressure gradient over the central Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 8-9 ft E of the Lesser Antilles to about 45W by early this morning. These marine conditions will persist on Sun with seas building up to 10 ft. Fresh to strong winds are also expected off Hispaniola at night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ AL