000 AXNT20 KNHC 210523 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 123 AM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W from 11N. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 13N southward between Africa and 26W. A second Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W from 11N southward, based on satellite imagery, moving W 20 knots. Widely scattered moderate rainshowers are in the ITCZ. A third Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/41W from 11N southward, moving W 15 knots. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the ITCZ. A fourth Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W from 18N southward, moving W 10 knots. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 14N southward between 50W and 61W. The wave will move across the eastern Caribbean from this afternoon through Friday night. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W from the Dominican Republic southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the NW corner of Venezuela and parts of the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W, to 07N19W. The ITCZ is along 07N22W 06N40W 04N50W. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 03N to 08N between 23W and 43W. isolated moderate rainshowers are from 10N southward between 43W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Deep South of Texas and parts of NE Mexico. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in the upper Texas Gulf coast, and along the southern and SE coast of Texas. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in Mexico from 25N to 26N between 98W and 101W. A comparatively weak surface pressure pattern exists in the Gulf of Mexico. A broad and weak surface ridge passes through central Florida toward the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Surface low pressure in southern Texas will support gusty winds, numerous rainshowers and scattered thunderstorms near the coast in the NW Gulf of Mexico overnight. The winds and seas in the NW Gulf of Mexico will diminish on Thursday as the low pressure center weakens. A surface trough will develop in the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon, then move westward across the SW Gulf during the overnight hours, accompanied by fresh east to southeast winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from a 27N65W Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center, across the SE Bahamas and eastern sections of Cuba, to a NW Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation center that is 20N84W. The trough continues from 20N84W to the part of southern Mexico that is between the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and northern Guatemala. Earlier areas of scattered to numerous strong rainshowers were covering much of Central America. Convective debris clouds from some weakening and already- dissipated precipitation, and remaining widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover Central America from 09N to 18N between 83W and 92W in SE Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 11N to 16N between 74W and 79W. The monsoon trough is along 10N between 74W in Colombia and beyond NW Costa Rica. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are near the border of Colombia and Panama. The Hispaniola tropical wave will move into the western Caribbean Sea on Thursday. The 57W/58W tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles on Thursday morning. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras from Friday night through Sunday night. Trade winds across the south central Caribbean Sea will strengthen on Thursday, and then expand in coverage across the basin during the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 35N34W cyclonic circulation center, through 32N50W, to a second Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center that is near 27N65W, across the SE Bahamas and eastern sections of Cuba, to a NW Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation center that is near 20N84W. The trough continues from 20N84W, to the part of southern Mexico that is between the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and northern Guatemala. Earlier areas of scattered to numerous strong rainshowers were covering much of Central America six to 8 hours ago. Convective debris clouds from some weakening and already-dissipated precipitation, and remaining widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover Central America from 09N to 18N between 83W and 92W in SE Mexico. Precipitation: warming cloud top temperatures and weakening precipitation from 19N to 21N between 63W and 67W to the north of Puerto Rico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 23N to 30N between 50W and 76W. Surface high pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will build westward across the region through Sunday night. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will develop in the waters S of 23N on Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT