000 AXNT20 KNHC 201202 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 802 AM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... There are three tropical waves between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. A tropical wave is along 26W from 3N-11N, moving W 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ. A second tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 3N-11N, moving W about 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is also noted where the wave meets the ITCZ. A third tropical wave is along 55W from 5N-14N, moving W about 10 knots. A cluster of moderate convection is within about 90 nm on the west side of the wave's axis from 10N-12N A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis is along 67W/68W, and extends from the Mona Passage to the coast of Venezuela. A cluster of moderate convection is over the Mona Passage. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 05N25W. The ITCZ continues from 05N25W to 03N40W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is roughly from 3N-7N between 17W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1006 mb low pressure center is inland in the Deep South of Texas near 27N98W. A large area of moderate to strong convection is associated with the low affecting the Gulf waters from 25N-29N W of 95W. Flash flooding threats exist along the Texas coast as this system move slowly. A widespread 3 to 5 inches of rainfall is possible over this region through Thu morning with isolated pockets of heavier amounts expected. A ridge dominates the Gulf region. Fresh SE winds are expected in the NW Gulf through this evening. A typical pattern, with a ridge, and a surface trough developing over the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon, then moving westward across the SW Gulf during overnight hours, accompanied by fresh east to southeast winds, is expected to persist through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave along 55W will reach the Windward Islands Thursday morning. Winds will pulse to around 20 kt in the Gulf of Honduras each night through Sunday. Trade winds across the south-central Caribbean will strengthen on Thursday, then expand in coverage across the basin this weekend. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are noted from the Mona Passage, including the eastern portion of Dominican Republic, eastward to the Leeward Islands. This convective activity is associated with a tropical wave located along the Mona Passage and the presence of an upper-level trough that crosses eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and tstms are also noted over the SW Caribbean just off the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation centered near 28N64W to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and tstms are on the SE side of the cyclonic circulation affecting the waters from 24N-28N between 60W-68W. Similar convective activity is also noted from 21N-23N between 62W-66W. A weakening stationary front located east-northeast of the Bahamas will gradually dissipate later today. High pressure from the central Atlantic will build westward over the region through Thu. A weak trough is expected to move into the northwest waters Fri through Sat night, with little effect. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR