000 AXNT20 KNHC 200520 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 120 AM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W from 11N southward, moving W about 20 knots. Any nearby precipitation is part of the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section. A second Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W from 11N southward, moving W about 15 knots. Any nearby precipitation is part of the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section. A third Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W from 14N southward, moving W about 10 knots. Precipitation; isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 13N southward between 50W and 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 20N66W to 15N67W to 10N68W in Venezuela, moving W 15 to 20 knots. Upper level SW wind flow is moving through the area of the tropical wave. Precipitation: isolated moderate is between 62W and 67W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, to 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to 04N34W and 02N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 02N to 09N between 13W and 37W. isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 09N southward from 50W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1006 mb low pressure center is inland in the Deep South of Texas near 28N99W. A surface trough is along 29N96W, to the low pressure center, to 26N98W, at the border with Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover Mexico, Texas, and the Gulf of Mexico from 24N to 30N between 93W and 101W. The precipitation pattern consisted of more aerial coverage and comparatively deeper convective precipitation six hours ago. Upper level anticyclonic outflow is spiraling away from south Texas, covering the area that includes the Texas/Mexico border near 101W, northward into the southern half of Arkansas, to the Mississippi/Alabama border, and then into the Gulf of Mexico from 88W westward. Upper level easterly wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 88W eastward. The current Texas surface low pressure center, and an upper level trough, will support numerous rainshowers, some with thunder, N of 22N W of 92W tonight. Fresh SE winds are expected in the NW Gulf through Wednesday. A surface trough will develop along the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon, then move westward across the SW Gulf during the overnight hours, accompanied by fresh east to southeast winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from a 29N63W cyclonic circulation center, to 24N67W, along a shear axis from 24N67W to 21N78W in Cuba, to 17N86W in the western Caribbean Sea, and to central Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers have been in parts of central Haiti, in eastern parts of Cuba and near the Isle of Youth. Multilayered clouds are to the south of the line that runs from NE Nicaragua beyond the Mona Passage. Rainshowers are possible in this area. The 24-hour rainfall report from Guadeloupe, ending at 20/0000 UTC, showed 0.60 inches. A tropical wave is moving across Puerto Rico. The current tropical wave will support scattered rainshowers, some with thunder, N of 15N. The wind speeds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Trade winds across the south central Caribbean Sea will strengthen on Thursday, and then expand in coverage during the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from a 29N63W cyclonic circulation center, to 24N67W, along a shear axis from 24N67W to 21N78W in Cuba, to 17N86W in the western Caribbean Sea, and to central Nicaragua. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 16N in the Caribbean Sea to 28N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 67W. A dissipating stationary front is along 31N56W 27N64W, to the Bahamas near 25N77W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 24N to 32N between 49W and 58W. The current weakening stationary front will dissipate gradually overnight. Surface high pressure will build westward across the region from Wednesday through Thursday. A weak surface trough will move into the northwestern waters from Friday through Saturday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT