000 AXNT20 KNHC 190530 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends along 21W from 05N to 14N, moving W of Africa at 15 kt in a low vertical shear environment. GOES-16 Dust RGB imagery show the wave is being affected by dry air and dust, especially in the northern part. No deep convection and minimal tropical showers are associated with the wave. A tropical wave axis in the central Atlc extends from 12N33W to 03N34W, moving W at 15-20 kt in a low shear environment. It is being affected by dry air and dust, and no deep convection is associated with this wave. A tropical wave axis in the west-central Atlc extends from 14N49W to 06N51W, moving W at 10-15 kt. GOES-16 RGB imagery shows dry air and dust intrusion in the wave environment, which along with strong wind shear is inhibiting deep convection. A tropical wave axis crossing the Windward Islands extends from 15N61W to 07N62W, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is within a very moist environment and upper level diffluent flow, supporting scattered moderate convection south of 15N between 59W and 63W. A tropical wave axis in the central Caribbean extends from 21N77W to 09N78W, moving W at 10-15 kt in a strong wind shear environment. GOES-16 middle and lower level water vapor imagery show very dry air in the region. These two factors are hindering the development of deep convection at the time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W to 07N50W. Scattered showers are from 02N to 07N between 20W and 29W and from 06N to 10N between 50W and 56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are over the NW Gulf of Mexico, associated with an upper level low interacting with a surface trough near the Texas coast. Development of this system is not anticipated. However, heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of southern and southeastern Texas are likely to continue the next few days. The pressure gradient between the area of low pressure and a ridge across the SE CONUS extending into the NE Gulf supports fresh to strong SE to S winds N of 22N between 91W and 95W. The ridge will weaken by Tue evening, winds diminishing to below 20 kt. Gentle to moderate return flow will dominate the basin thereafter through Wed night, with strongest winds being west of 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong trades across the S central Caribbean will gradually decrease in areal coverage this morning as high pressure in the SW N Atlc shifts east. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras through early Wed morning. Otherwise, a tropical wave passing west of the Windward Islands will move across the E Caribbean today along with showers. The wave will move S of Puerto Rico, then into the central Caribbean on Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening stationary front extends from a 106 mb low near 31N56W to east of the Bahamas near 25N75W. Weak surface ridging north of the front supports light to gentle NE to E winds and mostly fair weather. Lingering moisture is associated with the front. A mid-level trough continues to support widely scattered showers within 150 nm ahead of the front. Latest scatterometer data shows fresh winds near the low center. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores subtropical ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high NE of the Azores Islands. The front will weaken today then dissipate tonight. Surface ridging will dominate thereafter. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell