000 AXNT20 KNHC 150005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis extending from 12N27W to 03N28W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a favorable wind shear environment, and the CIRA LPW show moderate moisture associated with it. The GOES-16 Geocolor RGB imagery shows the presence of the Saharan Air Layer dust and dry air N of the wave at 15N. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis S of 9N. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 12N43W to 03N43W, moving W at 10-15 kt. GOES SAL and Dust RGBs show the wave has dry air and dust N of 12N. Upper level diffluent flow and shallow moisture in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports widely scattered moderate convection from 04N to 11N between 35W and 42W. A tropical wave is E of the Windward Islands with axis extending from 13N57W to 03N59W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The Saharan Air Layer dust and dry air is N of 11N. This factor along with strong wind sheer in the region is hindering the development of deep convection. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending S from the southern coast of Cuba near 20N78W to Jamaica to near eastern Panama near 11N79W, moving west at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the SW Gulf of Mexico with axis extending from 21N96W to SE Mexico, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N15W to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 06N26W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N29W continuing to 06N42W, then resumes again W of another tropical wave near 06N45W and continues to the coast of South America near 06N56W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the axis E of 26W to the coast of Africa. Scattered moderate convection is also from 07N-11N between 37W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 27N84W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are going around the high. Scattered moderate convection is is over the E Gulf E of 89W to include Florida and the Straits of Florida. In the upper levels, a low is centered over the SW Gulf near 26N92W. Upper level diffluence is E of the center over the E Gulf enhancing convection. A broad area of thunderstorm activity continues over the Yucatan Peninsula. This activity is expected to persist through Friday, and then will move slowly northwestward during the weekend. Development of this disturbance, if any, should be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tropical wave in the central Caribbean will continue westward across the remainder of the basin through the early part of the weekend, while another tropical wave currently in the Tropical N Atlantic will move into the eastern Caribbean on Fri and Sat. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are S of 11N in the SW Caribbean, and in the NW Caribbean W of 85W. Otherwise, mostly fair weather is over the E Caribbean. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the western Caribbean along 81W. A large upper level ridge is over the remainder of the Caribbean with axis along 72W. Strong trades currently across the central Caribbean will shift slightly SW across the waters between 70W and 85W through the end of the week, then begin to diminish into the early part of the weekend as the pressure gradient weakens slightly. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Diffluent southwesterly upper level flow is over the SW N Atlantic. A weak surface trough may be present from 28N75W to 25N77W with scattered showers and thunderstorms within 120 nm SE of the trough axis. Farther E, an upper level trough in the central Atlantic supports a stationary front from 32N52W to 28N56W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Otherwise, a 1030 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 35N31W producing surface ridging over the E Atlantic E of 50W and N of 20N. This ridge is forecast to shift E Fri and Sat while the front gradually weakens. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa