000 AXNT20 KNHC 122355 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 755 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 34W from 01N-11N, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave shows up as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. Currently, showers are limited near the wave's axis. African dust surrounds the wave limiting convection. A tropical wave extends from 15N51W to 05N52W, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave shows up as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave axis. An upper-level trough is west of the tropical wave along 57W enhancing convective activity. A tropical wave extends from 18N64W to 06N63W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with a surge of moistened air, as noted in TPW imagery. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis south of 10N. A tropical wave over the W Caribbean extends from 20N80W to 11N80W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 12N-20N between 78W-83W. An upper-level trough is west of the tropical wave along 87W enhancing convective activity. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N16W to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to 04N33W, then resumes west of a tropical wave at 04N36W and continues to 05N51W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-06N between 36W-47W. Scattered moderate convection is also from 06N-10N between 56W- 60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A mid to upper-level trough extends across the eastern Gulf and the NW Caribbean into Honduras with axis along 87W. It continues to enhance the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf and the Yucatan Channel. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of surface ridge, anchored by a 1018 mb high centered over the NE Gulf near 28N87W. Little change is expected over the next few days. The upper- level trough will meander over the region and enhance deep convection in the eastern gulf waters. A surface trough will develop along the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, then drift westward across the southwest Gulf at night, accompanied by fresh east to southeast winds, then dissipate by late morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid to upper-level trough extends across the NW Caribbean with axis along 87W. Diffluent flow east of this trough is enhancing convection over the W Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is inland from S Guatemala to Panama. Two tropical waves are also over the Caribbean Sea. See above. A tight pressure gradient will support strong trades across the south-central Caribbean this week, with high winds and seas spreading northward into the central Caribbean by Wed, and into the west Caribbean later this week. Little change to the upper- level trough is expected through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Abundant deep layer moisture continues to prevail in the western Atlantic and Bahamas, E of a deep upper-level trough with axis along 87W. Scattered moderate convection is observed west of 75W. A surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 33N33W, producing fair weather. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge from scatterometer data. The surface ridge will meander between 27N-29N through the week. Fresh to strong easterly winds are possible along the northern coast of Hispaniola during late afternoons and early evenings. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic southerly flow will prevail north of the ridge axis. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa