000 AXNT20 KNHC 121735 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 135 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 33W from 01N-11N, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave shows up as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. Currently, showers are limited near the wave's axis. African dust surrounds the wave limiting convection. A tropical wave extends its axis from 15N50W to 06N51W, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave shows up as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. Scattered moderate convection is between 46W-58W. An upper-level trough west of 50W is enhancing convective activity associated with this wave. Another tropical wave axis is from 18N62W to 06N62W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with a surge of moistened air, as noted in TPW imagery. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis south of 10N. A tropical wave moving across the Windward Passage and the central Caribbean, with axis extending from 20N74W to 10N76W, moving west at 10-15 kt. An area of moderate convection is noted west of the wave's axis along 80W, enhanced by a diffluent flow aloft. Widespread cloudiness prevails ahead of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N16W to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 05N30W, then resumes west of the tropical wave from 05N35W to 07N49W. Scattered moderate convection is related to the tropical wave along 50W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A mid to upper-level trough extends across the eastern Gulf and the NW Caribbean into Honduras with axis along 85W. It continues to enhance the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf and the Yucatan Channel. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of surface ridge, anchored by a 1019 mb high centered over the Florida peninsula near 27N81W. Little change is expected the few days. The upper-level trough will meander over the region and enhance deep convection in the eastern gulf waters. A surface trough will develop along the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, then drift westward across the southwest Gulf at night, accompanied by fresh east to southeast winds, then dissipate by late morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid to upper-level trough extends across the NW Caribbean with axis along 85W. Diffluent flow east of this trough is producing numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms between 73W-84W. A surface trough within this convection extending along 80W. A tight pressure gradient will support strong trades across the south-central Caribbean this week, with high winds and seas spreading northward into the central Caribbean by Wed, and into the west Caribbean later this week. Little change to the upper- level trough is expected through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Abundant deep layer moisture continues to prevail in the western Atlantic and Bahamas, E of a deep upper-level trough with axis along 85W. Scattered moderate convection is observed west of 75W. A surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 31N40W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge from scatterometer data. The surface ridge will meander between 27N-29N through the week. Fresh to strong easterly winds are possible along the northern coast of Hispaniola during late afternoons and early evenings. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic southerly flow will prevail north of the ridge axis. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA