000 AXNT20 KNHC 111725 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 125 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Currently, three tropical waves are observed between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. A tropical wave is along 25W from 02N-12N. This wave shows up as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. Currently, showers are limited near the wave's axis. African dust surrounds the wave limiting convection. A tropical wave extends its axis from 14N42W to 05N45W. This wave was repositioned after analyzing current observations and model diagnostics. This wave shows up as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. Scattered showers are near the southern end of the wave's axis south of 10N between 43W-48W. Saharan dust surrounds the northern half of the wave limiting convection. Another tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 05N-16N. The wave coincides with a surge of moistened air, as noted in TPW imagery. This wave was repositioned after analyzing this data, current observations, and model diagnostics. Scattered showers are noted south of 08N between 55W-58W. A tropical wave is moving across Hispaniola. This wave was repositioned after analyzing current observations/satellite imagery, and model diagnostics. Its axis is along 70W south of 19N. Scattered showers are noted along the axis. A tropical wave is moving across the Bay of Campeche, with axis along 92W. This wave is forecast to weaken as it enters the EPAC region. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 14N17W, to 07N23W. The ITCZ continues west of a tropical wave near 05N27W to 06N42W then from 06N47W to 06N54W. No significant convection is observed with these features at this time. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A mid to upper-level trough extending across the eastern Gulf and the NW Caribbean into northern Central America continues to enhance the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf, and over parts of Florida. Convection is now more concentrated over the southeast Gulf waters and the Yucatan Channel. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of the Atlantic ridge that extends westward across Florida into the Gulf. The mid to upper trough will meander over the Gulf of Mexico through the week and continue to enhance convection mainly across the eastern gulf waters. A surface trough will develop along the Yucatan Peninsula late each afternoon, drift westward across the southwest Gulf during the overnight hours accompanied by a fresh east to southeast wind shift with the trough dissipating along 96W during the late mornings. Guidance is suggesting a fresh to strong wind shift will accompany the trough beginning on Wed evening as the pressure gradient tightens during the middle of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid to upper-level trough extends across the west Caribbean with axis along 86W. A diffluent flow to the east of this trough is enhancing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms between 73W-84W. A surface trough was analyzed within this convection, extending from 19N79W to 12N82W. A tight pressure gradient will support strong trades across the south-central and southwest Caribbean through the week, with these conditions spreading north across the central Caribbean by the Wednesday, and across the the west Caribbean by late this week. The mid to upper-level trough will prevail across the west Caribbean through the week enhancing convection across this area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Abundant moisture continues to prevail across the west Atlantic and the Bahamas, on the eastern side of the Gulf of Mexico-west Caribbean mid to upper-level trough. Lightning data and Doppler Radar indicate the presence of scattered thunderstorms across the coastal waters of east Florida, the Straits of Florida, and the Bahamas. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean with a 1027 mb high pressure located near 30N41W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge per scatterometer data. The surface ridge will meander between 27N and 29N through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are forecast along the northern coast of Hispaniola during the late afternoons and evenings, with moderate easterly low forecast elsewhere south of the ridge. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is expected north of the ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA