000 AXNT20 KNHC 111153 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 752 AM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Currently, three tropical waves are observed between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. A tropical wave is along 22W from 02N-12N. This wave shows up well as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. Currently, convection is limited near the wave's axis. African dust surrounds the wave limiting convection. A tropical wave is along 32W/33W from 02N-13N moving westward 15 to 20 kt. This wave shows up well as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. Scattered showers are near the southern end of the wave's axis. Saharan dust surrounds the wave limiting convection. Another tropical wave is along 47W/48W from 03N-13N. The wave coincides with a surge of moistened air. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-08N between 42W-47W. A tropical wave is moving across Hispaniola. Its axis is along 71W south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are noted over Hispaniola in association with this system, forecast to move west through the central Caribbean today reaching the west Caribbean waters on Tue and Wed. A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala, with axis along 91W. This wave is forecast to weaken as it enters the EPAC region. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 07N18W and 05N30W. The ITCZ continues from 05N33W to 05N55W, near the border of French Guiana and Suriname. Scattered showers are from 11N southward and from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A mid to upper level trough extending across the eastern Gulf and the NW Caribbean into northern Central America continues to enhance the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf, and over parts of Florida. Convection is now more concentrated over the Se Gulf and the Yucatan Channel. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of the Atlantic ridge that extends westward across Florida into the Gulf. The mid to upper trough will meander over the Gulf of Mexico through Fri and continue to enhance convection mainly across the eastern the far east and southeast gulf waters. A surface trough will develop along the Yucatan Peninsula late each afternoon, drift westward across the southwest Gulf during the overnight hours accompanied by a fresh east to southeast wind shift with the trough dissipating along 96W during the late mornings. Guidance is suggesting a fresh to strong wind shift will accompany the trough beginning on Wed evening as the pressure gradient tightens during the middle of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient will support strong trades across the south-central and southwest Caribbean through Mon, with these conditions spreading north across the central Caribbean by the middle of the week, and across the the west Caribbean late in the week. Locally strong trades will develop across the tropical waters east of the Windwards on Mon night, with these strong conditions spreading west across the southeast Caribbean waters on Tue night and Wed. Strong SW flow ahead of a mid to upper-level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the NW Caribbean continues to transport abundant mid to upper level moisture across the NW Caribbean and Cuba into the Bahamas. Convection has flared up across the SW Caribbean with a band of showers and tstms extending within about 120 nm Ne of a line from 09N76W to 13N83W. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is noted elsewhere across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Abundant moisture continues to prevail across the west Atlantic and the Bahamas, on the eastern side of the Gulf of Mexico-NW Caribbean mid to upper-level trough. Lightning data and Doppler Radar indicate the presence of isolated to scattered tstms across the coastal waters of E Florida, the Straits of Florida, and the NW Bahamas. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean with a 1027 mb high pressure located near 34N28W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge per scatterometer data. An east to west ridge will meander between 27N and 29N through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are forecast along the northern coast of Hispaniola during the late afternoons and evenings, with moderate easterly low forecast elsewhere south of the ridge. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is expected north of the ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR/ERA