000 AXNT20 KNHC 110550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 150 AM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W from 11N southward. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered convective debris clouds, from earlier and already-dissipated precipitation, cover the area from 02N to 10N between 17W and 22W. it is possible that isolated moderate rainshowers may remain in the area of cloudiness. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W from 13N southward moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The position of this wave is based on long-loop satellite images. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are in the ITCZ from 03N to 08N between 30W and 40W in the ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W, from 14N southward moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 03N to 11N between 40W and 50W, in the ITCZ. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from Hispaniola southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 16N to 21N between the Mona Passage and the Windward Passage. A tropical wave is along 90W, moving across the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Central America. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent at this time. The wave is moving through the area of an upper level trough. It is possible that rainshowers may continue to develop in parts of the western Caribbean Sea, northern Central America, and the Yucatan Peninsula, during the next 24 hours or so. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 07N18W and 05N30W. The ITCZ continues from 05N33W to 05N55W, near the border of French Guiana and Suriname. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 11N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough extends from a SE coastal Georgia cyclonic circulation center, through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, through the Yucatan Peninsula, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, across Honduras, into central sections of Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea between 70W and 86W, in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 70W westward, and in the Gulf of Mexico from Florida to 90W. A surface ridge passes through 28N71W in the Atlantic Ocean, across Florida and Lake Okeechobee, toward the Deep South of Texas. Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow will remain in the Gulf of Mexico through the middle of the week and continue to enhance rainshowers across the eastern Gulf waters. A surface trough will develop along the Yucatan Peninsula late each afternoon, drift westward across the southwestern Gulf during the overnight hours accompanied by a fresh east to southeast wind shift, with the trough dissipating along 96W during the late mornings. Guidance is suggesting a fresh to strong wind shift will accompany the trough beginning on Wednesday evening, as the surface pressure gradient tightens during the middle of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from a SE coastal Georgia cyclonic circulation center, through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, through the Yucatan Peninsula, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, across Honduras, into central sections of Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea between 70W and 86W, in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 70W westward, and in the Gulf of Mexico from Florida to 90W. scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from 08N to 15N between 75W in coastal sections of Colombia, and 84W in coastal Nicaragua. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia and 84W in Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from 08N to 15N between 75W in coastal sections of Colombia, and 84W in coastal Nicaragua. The 70W tropical wave will continue to move westward, through the central Caribbean Sea, reaching the western sections of the Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. A second tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Sea late on Tuesday. A tight surface pressure gradient will support strong trade winds across the south central and southwestern Caribbean Sea through Monday, with these conditions spreading north across the central Caribbean Sea by the middle of the week. Locally strong trade winds will develop across the tropical waters to the east of the Windwards on Monday night. The strong conditions will spread westward across the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday night and Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from a SE coastal Georgia cyclonic circulation center, through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, through the Yucatan Peninsula, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, across Honduras, into central sections of Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea between 70W and 86W, in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 70W westward, and in the Gulf of Mexico from Florida to 90W. A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure that is near 35N28W, through 32N35W, to 29N55W 28N71W, across Florida to 27N85W in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. An east-to-west oriented surface ridge will meander between 27N and 29N through Friday. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are forecast along the northern coast of Hispaniola during the late afternoons and evenings, with moderate easterly flow forecast elsewhere to the south of the ridge. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is expected north of the ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT