000 AXNT20 KNHC 110005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W from 11N southward. The Hovmoller Diagram clearly indicates the westward propagation of the wave, and model diagnostics guidance also suggests the presence of this system. This wave shows up well as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered convective debris clouds, from earlier and already-dissipated precipitation, cover the area from 03N to 10N between 16W and 26W. it is possible that isolated moderate rainshowers may remain in the area of cloudiness. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W from 12N southward moving westward 15 to 20 knots. This wave shows up well as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are in the ITCZ from 04N to 08N between 29W and 36W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W based on the TPW animation. The wave coincides with a good surge of moistened air. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 02N to 10N between 37W and 47W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, starting to move across Hispaniola, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 16N to 22N between 63W and 71W. A tropical wave is along 88W/89W, moving across the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Central America. The wave is interacting with an upper level trough, with continued development of rainshowers in parts of the western Caribbean Sea, northern Central America, and the Yucatan Peninsula. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N12W, to 07N20W, 05N25W, and 05N30W. The ITCZ continues from 05N33W to 06N43W, and then along 05N/06N between 46W and 60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 11N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A mid to upper level trough extending across the eastern Gulf and the far NW Caribbean into northern Central America continues to enhance the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf, and over parts of Florida. Similar convective activity is also noted along the northern Gulf waters from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of the Atlantic ridge that extends westward across Florida into the Gulf, with a 1019 mb high pressure centered near 28N87W. Middle leve to upper level cyclonic wind flow will remain in the Gulf of Mexico through the middle of the week and continue to enhance convection across the eastern Gulf waters. The Atlantic Ocean subtropical ridge will continue to extend across the eastern Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and generally lower pressure over the far western gulf will support moderate to fresh SE winds mainly west of 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean, and the eastern Caribbean S of 15N. The most recent altimeter data indicated sea heights of near 10 ft in association with these winds. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail across the remainder of the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate NE-E winds across the NW part of the basin. The pressure gradient between high pressure N of area and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean, and the eastern Caribbean S of 15N, but mainly W of 64W. These conditions will persist through early Tue, then expand north and across the NW Caribbean waters Tue night through Thu. The 68W/69W tropical wave will continue to move westward during the next few days, and reach the Gulf of Honduras early on Wednesday, where it will enhance the trades to fresh to strong through Thursday. The Atlantic Ocean subtropical ridge will continue to tighten the pressure gradient in the central Caribbean, thus supporting the continuation of fresh to strong trades in that region. A new tropical wave will enter the basin early on Wednesday. It will enhance the trades to fresh to strong in the E Caribbean Sea from Tuesday night through Thursday morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Abundant moisture continues to prevail across the west Atlantic and the Bahamas, on the eastern side of the Gulf of Mexico-NW Caribbean mid to upper-level trough. Lightning data and Doppler Radar indicate the presence of tstms over S Florida and the NW Bahamas. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean with a 1026 mb high pressure located near 35N28W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge per scatterometer data. The Atlantic subtropical ridge will continue to extend westward across the region supporting southerly light to moderate winds in the windward side of the Bahamas. Strong high pressure associated with the ridge will lead to enhanced trades along the northern coast of Hispaniola every night during the forecast period. 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