000 AXNT20 KNHC 101201 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 801 AM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Currently, two tropical waves are observed between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. A tropical wave is along 29W/30W from 4N-14N moving westward 15 to 20 kt. This wave shows up well as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. Currently, scattered showers are near the southern end of the wave's axis. African dust surrounds the wave. A second tropical wave extends its axis along 40W south of 15N, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is seen where the waves axis meets the ITCZ. Saharan dust also surrounds the wave. A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis is along 65W/66W south of 18N, moving westward 15 to 20 kt. A patch of low level moisture with embedded showers is associated with the wave, affecting Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The wave will reach Hispaniola late today. A tropical wave is along 88W moving west at 10 kt. The wave is interacting with an upper-level trough resulting in continued thunderstorm development across parts of the western Caribbean and northern Central America. Scattered showers and tstms are now observed near the northern end of the wave's axis. affecting the east part of the Yucatan Peninsula. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Guinea near 10N14W to 07N26W. The ITCZ continues from 07N26W to 06N40W to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N-09N between 14N-19N. Scattered moderate convection is within about 120 nm N of the ITCZ axis between 43W and 46W, and within 90 nm N of the ITCZ axis between W of 56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A mid to upper level low located over the NE Gulf continues to enhance the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf, and over parts of Florida. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of the Atlantic ridge that extends westward across Florida into the Gulf. Scattered showers and tstms persist just of the coast of Mexico, roughly between Tuxpan and Veracruz, where a diffluent pattern aloft prevails. The mid to upper low will meander over the Gulf of Mexico through the middle of the week and continue to enhance convection across the eastern Gulf waters. A surface trough will develop along the Yucatan Peninsula late each afternoon, drift westward across the southwest Gulf during the overnight hours accompanied by a fresh east to southeast wind shift and dissipate along 96W during the late mornings. An east to west ridge will meander across the northern Gulf waters through the period accompanied by moderate to locally fresh return flow. The pressure gradient will tighten during the middle of the week with mostly fresh southeast flow forecast across the entire southwest gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave moving west through the eastern Caribbean will continue through the central Caribbean early this week. A tight pressure gradient will support strong trades across the south-central and southwest Caribbean through Mon, with these conditions shifting north across the Caribbean waters from 12N to 19N by the middle of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An east to west ridge will meander between 27N and 29N through Thu. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are forecast along the northern coast of Hispaniola during the late afternoons and evenings, with moderate easterly low forecast elsewhere south of the ridge. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is expected north of the ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR