000 AXNT20 KNHC 100508 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 108 AM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W from 15N southward, moving westward 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers from 03N to 08N between 25W and 30W in the ITCZ. A second Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis along 37W/38W south of 15N, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 04N to 08N between 30W and 40W in the ITCZ. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W from 19N southward moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Broken to overcast low level clouds and possible rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea from 14N to 20N between 58W and 70W. The wave will pass to the south of Puerto Rico tonight, and reach Hispaniola on Sunday. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W from 20N southward, from the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea to Honduras and Nicaragua, moving westward 10 knots. The wave is moving through an area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. Continued rainshowers are possible in parts of the western Caribbean Sea and northern sections of Central America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Guinea near 10N14W, to 08N20W and 07N25W. The ITCZ continues from 06N29W to 05N36W, 06N40W 06N50W, and 08N58W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 02N to 10N from 60W eastward. Numerous strong rainshowers are in Sierra Leone and Guinea. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the coastal waters from 05N to 09N between land and 15W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Large-scale upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the entire area. The cyclonic wind flow includes Mexico and Central America and the Caribbean Sea from 13N northward from Jamaica westward, and it covers the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba northward from 75W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover Central America from Guatemala and El Salvador northward and from 15N northward from the Windward Passage westward, in the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba and 20N northward from 75W to Florida, to 86W in the Gulf of Mexico. The middle to upper level cyclonic wind flow will continue in the Gulf of Mexico through the middle of the next week, enhancing rainshowers in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough will develop along the Yucatan Peninsula late each afternoon, drift westward across the southwestern Gulf during the overnight hours, then dissipate along 96W during the late mornings. A fresh northeast-to-east-to-southeast windshift is forecast along the trough. An east-to-west oriented ridge will meander across the northern Gulf waters through the period accompanied by moderate to locally fresh return flow. The surface pressure gradient will tighten during the middle of the week, with fresh southeast flow forecast across the entire southwestern Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Large-scale upper level cyclonic wind flow covers Mexico and Central America and the Caribbean Sea from 13N northward from Jamaica westward, and it covers the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba northward from 75W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover Central America and the Caribbean Sea from Guatemala and El Salvador northward and from 15N northward from the Windward Passage westward, in the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba and 20N northward from 75W to Florida, to 86W in the Gulf of Mexico. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 73W in Colombia and beyond 84W in Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong rainshowers cover the areas that are from 07N to 11N between 73W and 84W The current eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave will continue westward through the central Caribbean Sea early this week. A tight surface pressure gradient will support strong trade winds in the south central and southwestern sections through Monday. These conditions will be spreading northward across the Caribbean Sea from 12N to 19N by the middle of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Large-scale upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the entire area. The cyclonic wind flow includes Mexico and Central America and the Caribbean Sea from 13N northward from Jamaica westward, and it covers the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba northward from 75W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover Central America from Guatemala and El Salvador northward and from 15N northward from the Windward Passage westward, in the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba and 20N northward from 75W to Florida, to 86W in the Gulf of Mexico. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between Africa and 80W. A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure center that is near 35N30W, through 32N36W, to 28N47W 28N62W, to 30N76W. An east-to-west oriented ridge will meander between 27N and 29N through Thursday. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are forecast along the northern coast of Hispaniola during the late afternoons and evenings, with moderate easterly wind flow forecast elsewhere south of the ridge. Gentle to moderate southerly wind flow is expected north of the ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT