000 AXNT20 KNHC 091201 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 801 AM EDT Sat Jun 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W from 13N southward moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis. A second Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis along 34W south of 15N, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted where the wave meets the ITCZ. A third Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, south of 15N, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of the wave's axis. A Caribbean Sea/Central America tropical wave is moving through Honduras and Nicaragua, from 18N southward along 85W, moving westward 10 knots. The wave is interacting with an upper level trough, extending from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan Peninsula. This will help to induce precipitation across Central America and the western Caribbean Sea during the weekend. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 14N17W, to 10N29W. The ITCZ is along 06N37W 05N48W. Outside of the convection associated with the waves, no deep convection is noted. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A mid to upper low will meander over the Gulf of Mexico through the middle of next week and enhance convection over the eastern Gulf waters. A surface trough will develop along the Yucatan Peninsula late each afternoon, drift westward across the southwest Gulf during the overnight hours, then dissipate along 96W during the late mornings. A strong wind shift is forecast along the trough this evening, with fresh northeast to east to southeast wind shift expected to resume beginning on Sun evening. An east to west ridge will meander across the northern Gulf waters through the period accompanied by a moderate southeast return flow, except increasing to fresh southeast breeze late Sun through Mon evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tropical wave with axis along 85W will pass west through the Gulf of Honduras through this evening and interact with an upper trough resulting in continued thunderstorm development across the western Caribbean. A second tropical wave with axis along 57W/58W will pass west through the tropical waters east of the Windwards today, and enter the southeast Caribbean tonight. A tight pressure gradient is supporting near gale force winds along the north coast of Colombia. The pressure gradient will relax later today supporting strong trades across the south-central and southwest Caribbean through Sun, with fresh to locally strong trades forecast from 12N to 19N beginning early next week. Multi-layer clouds cover most of the Caribbean W of 78W, including Cuba. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade winds flow are noted elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Abundant moisture continues to prevail across the west Atlantic, on the eastern side of the Gulf of Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula mid to upper level trough. A band of multi-layer clouds extends from central Cuba across the NW and central Bahamas with embedded tstms. An east to west ridge will meander between 27N and 29N through Wed. Fresh to locally strong nocturnal easterly winds are forecast along the northern coast of Hispaniola, with moderate easterly forecast elsewhere south of the ridge. Gentle to moderate southerly flow is expected north of the ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR