000 AXNT20 KNHC 090523 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 123 AM EDT Sat Jun 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 17W/18W from 13N southward. Precipitation: rainshowers are in the ITCZ within 60 nm to 120 on either side of the tropical wave. A second Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis along 34W/35W south of 15N, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: rainshowers are in the ITCZ within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave. A third Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W, south of 15N, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers from 07N to 10N between 48W and 54W. A Caribbean Sea/Central America tropical wave is moving through Honduras and Nicaragua, from 18N southward along 84W/85W, moving westward 10 knots. An upper level trough, extending from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan Peninsula, also will help to induce precipitation across Central America and the western Caribbean Sea during the weekend. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 14N17W, to 10N29W. The ITCZ is along 06N37W 05N48W. Precipitation: warming cloud top temperatures and dissipating precipitation from 08N to 12N between 12W and 17W. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers from 11N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Large-scale upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the entire area. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The cyclonic wind flow includes Mexico and Central America from 14N northward, and it covers the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba northward from 75W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are between 75W and 90W, from the Bahamas across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, and in parts of Mexico and Central America in the areas that are covered by the upper level cyclonic wind flow. A surface ridge passes through 29N80W, across Florida, to 28N96W, off the middle Texas Gulf coast. The current upper level cyclonic circulation center will meander in the Gulf of Mexico through the middle of the next week, enhancing convective precipitation in the eastern Gulf. A surface trough will develop along the Yucatan Peninsula late each afternoon, drift westward across the southwest Gulf during the overnight hours, accompanied by a fresh to locally strong wind shift, with the trough dissipating along 96W during the late mornings. An east-to-west oriented ridge will meander across the northern Gulf waters through the period, accompanied by moderate southeast return flow, increasing to fresh breeze lfrom late Sunday through Monday evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from the Windward Passage to the eastern sections of Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are present in the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia beyond central Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 05N to 11N between 74W in Colombia and beyond 84W in Costa Rica. The current tropical wave will move across parts of Central America and the western Caribbean Sea. It will interact with an upper level trough, with thunderstorms forecast across the west Caribbean Sea through tonight. Atlantic Ocean high pressure will support strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Sunday, reaching near gale overnight off Colombia and northwest Venezuela, diminishing early next week. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the Atlantic Ocean and the Bahamas from 20N northward from 70W westward. This area is on the eastern side of the Gulf of Mexico-to-16N92W Isthmus of Tehuantepec upper level trough. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are between 75W and 90W, from the Bahamas across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, and in parts of Mexico and Central America in the areas that are covered by the upper level cyclonic wind flow. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area, from 20N northward between Africa and 80W. A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 31N40W. A ridge extends from the 1028 mb high pressure center, through 28N63W to 29N80W. An east-to-west ridge will meander between 27N and 28N through the middle of the next week, supporting moderate to fresh winds south of 22N, pulsing to 25 knots off Hispaniola during overnight hours. Light to moderate southerly wind flow is expected along and north of the ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT