000 AXNT20 KNHC 090005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Fri Jun 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 15W/16W from 13N southward. The Hovmoller Diagram indicates the westward propagation of the wave, and model diagnostics guidance also suggests the presence of this system. A second Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis along 33W/34W south of 15N, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. A third Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W, south of 15N, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A Caribbean Sea/Central America tropical wave is moving through Honduras and Nicaragua, from 18N southward along 83W/84W, moving westward 10 knots. Moisture associated with the wave will spread across northern parts of Central America during the rest of today and Saturday. An upper level trough, extending from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan Peninsula, also will help to induce precipitation across Central America and the western Caribbean Sea during the weekend. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Guinea near 10N14W, to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 07N33W, 06N48W, and 05N53W at the coast of French Guiana. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the NE corner of the area. A 1018 mb low pressure center is near 29N87W, under the upper level feature. This system is helping to induce precipitation over Florida and adjacent coastal waters. The current upper level cyclonic circulation center will meander in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico for a few more days, enhancing convective precipitation in the eastern Gulf. A surface trough will develop along the Yucatan Peninsula late each afternoon, drift westward across the southwest Gulf during the overnight hours, accompanied by a fresh to locally strong wind shift, with the trough dissipating along 95W during the late mornings. An east-to-west oriented ridge will meander across the northern Gulf waters through the period with moderate southeast return flow increasing to fresh breeze late Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong trade winds from 11N-17N between 70W-82W. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail across the remainder of the eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate NE-E winds across the NW part of the basin. The current tropical wave will move across parts of Central America and the western Caribbean Sea. It will interact with an upper level trough, with thunderstorms forecast across the west Caribbean Sea through tonight. Atlantic Ocean high pressure will support strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Sunday, reaching near gale overnight off Colombia and northwest Venezuela, diminishing early next week. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. Moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail elsewhere through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Abundant moisture also prevails across the west Atlantic, on the eastern side of the Gulf of Mexico-Yucatan Peninsula mid to upper level trough. Scattered showers with embedded tstms are occurring over parts of Cuba, the Bahamas and E of the Florida Peninsula to about 77W. A weak 1018 mb low is located near 31N81W. This low will dissipate by tonight. Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. A cold front clips the northern forecast waters, mainly between 20W and 30W. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 32N39W. An east-to-west ridge will meander between 27N and 28N through the middle of the next week, supporting moderate to fresh winds south of 22N, pulsing to 25 knots off Hispaniola during overnight hours. Light to moderate southerly wind flow is expected along and north of the ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT