000 AXNT20 KNHC 081154 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 754 AM EDT Fri Jun 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis along 32W and south of 15N, moving westward at about 15 kt. This wave is noted at 700 mb. Convection is limited along the wave's axis. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis along 53W, south of 15N, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. This wave is noted at 700 mb. Scattered moderate convection is where the wave's axis meets the ITCZ. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends its axis along 83W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is moving through the area of an already-existing convection mainly due to an upper- level trough that extends across the western Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 17N16W and 10N27W. The ITCZ continues from 08N32W to 08N49W. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Upper-level cyclonic wind flow spans over the basin, with a trough extending along 85W. Scattered moderate convection covers the eastern Gulf mainly east of 88W affecting portions of Florida Peninsula and the Straits of Florida. A surface trough is moving across the Bay of Campeche with axis along 92W. A surface trough will develop along the Yucatan Peninsula late each afternoon, drift westward across the southwest Gulf during the overnight hours accompanied by a fresh to locally strong wind shift, with the trough dissipating along 95W during the late mornings. An east to west ridge will meander across the northern Gulf waters through the period with moderate southeast return flow increasing to fresh breeze late Sun. A mid to upper low will meander over the northeast Gulf for a few more days enhancing convection over the eastern Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave, with axis along 83W, will pass west through the western Caribbean and interact with an upper trough with showers thunderstorms forecast across the west Caribbean through tonight. Abundant moisture, with embedded showers and tstms, are noted over the NW Caribbean and Cuba. A diffluent pattern aloft, associated with the aforementioned upper trough, is helping to induce this convective activity. Atlantic high pressure will support strong, except near gale nocturnal trades, across the south-central and southwest Caribbean through the upcoming weekend, with the winds diminishing some early next week. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. Moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail elsewhere through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Abundant moisture also prevails across the west Atlantic, on the eastern side of the Gulf of Mexico-W Caribbean upper-level trough. Scattered showers with embedded tstms is noted across the Bahamas and E of the Florida Peninsula to about 77W. Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near the Azores at 39N32W. An east to west ridge will meander between 27N and 28N through Tue. Fresh to locally strong nocturnal easterly winds are forecast along the northern coast of Hispaniola, with moderate easterly low forecast elsewhere south of the ridge. Light to moderate southerly flow is expected north of the ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR