000 AXNT20 KNHC 080526 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 126 AM EDT Fri Jun 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis along 31W and south of 15N, moving westward at about 15 kt. This wave is noted at 700 mb. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis along 52W, from 14N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. This wave is noted at 700 mb. At this time, scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis mainly south of 06N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends its axis along 82W, from 18N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is moving through the area of an already-existing convection mainly due to an upper-level trough that extends across the western Caribbean. A tropical wave has its axis just west of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, along 94W, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers are observed in the vicinity of the wave's axis between 94W-98W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 17N16W and 10N27W. The ITCZ continues from 08N32W to 08N49W. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Upper-level cyclonic wind flow spans over the basin, with a trough extending along 85W. Scattered moderate convection covers the eastern Gulf mainly east of 88W affecting portions of Florida Peninsula and Straits. A surface trough is exiting the Yucatan Peninsula and entering the Bay of Campeche along 91W. A weak surface ridge will persist in the northern Gulf into early next week. Moderate to fresh SE return flow will set up in the northwest Gulf by late Sunday, between the ridge and a surface trough that will be to the west of the area. A surface trough will develop along the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, then drift westward in the the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico at night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper-level trough extends from the Gulf of Mexico into the west Caribbean. To the east of this trough, scattered moderate convection prevails between 80W-86W affecting Central America, Cuba, Jamaica and Cayman Islands. A tropical wave is embedded within this convection. Please refer to the section above for details. The monsoon trough is along 10N between 76W-83W with scattered convection. Scattered showers are noted between 70W-80W. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist over the central Caribbean. The wind speeds will reach near-gale force, mainly at night, near Colombia and Venezuela through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Saturday night. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Abundant moisture prevails across the west Atlantic, on the eastern side of the Gulf of Mexico-W Caribbean upper-level trough. Scattered moderate convection prevails west of 76W affecting the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula and Straits. Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 40N32W. The surface ridge will drift northward to 28N by late today, and persist into early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA