000 AXNT20 KNHC 072359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 759 PM EDT Thu Jun 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W south of 13N, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W, from 13N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W, from 18N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving through the area of an already-existing convection mainly due to an upper- level trough. A tropical wave is moving through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, along 945, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered showers are observed in the vicinity of the wave's axis between 93W-97W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Guinea to 10N15W and 07N26W. The ITCZ continues from 07N29W to 04N43W. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm on either side of the boundaries. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, with a trough in the central part of the area. Scattered moderate convection covers the eastern Gulf and parts of Florida from 25N northward and east of 90W. A weak surface ridge will persist in the northern Gulf into early next week. Moderate to fresh SE return flow will set up in the northwest Gulf by late Sunday, between the ridge and a surface trough that will be to the west of the area. A surface trough will develop along the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, then drift westward in the the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico at night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper-level cyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Central America and the Caribbean Sea, from NE Nicaragua northward from Haiti westward. Scattered moderate convection is observed over the west Caribbean mainly west of 77W affecting Central America, Cuba, Jamaica and Cayman Islands. Scattered showers prevail from 70W-76W. The monsoon trough is along 09N from Colombia along 74W westward, beyond southern Costa Rica. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the central Caribbean Sea. The wind speeds will reach near-gale force, mainly at night, near Colombia and Venezuela through Sunday. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Saturday night. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through Bermuda to 32N71W. Abundant moisture is streaming northeastward, on the eastern side of the Gulf of Mexico-W Caribbean upper-level trough. Scattered moderate convection prevails west of 76W affecting the northern Bahamas and Florida's east coast. To the east, a cold front passes through 32N26W to 31N33W. No significant convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery with this feature. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 39N33W. The surface ridge will drift northward to 28N by late Friday, and persist into early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA/MT