000 AXNT20 KNHC 060535 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 135 AM EDT Wed Jun 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A low amplitude tropical wave axis is along 42W and S of 12N moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. A tropical wave axis is along 65W and S of 18N, moving west across the eastern Caribbean at 15 kt. A surge of moisture associated with the wave is evident from TPW imagery. Despite this, no convection is related to this wave at this time due to the presence of African dust over the E Caribbean. The wave will cross S of Puerto Rico through the next 24 hours. A tropical wave axis is along 88W and S of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt across the Yucatan Peninsula. Abundant moisture is related to the wave based on TPW animation. The wave is generating scattered showers and isolated tstms over parts of northern Central America and the W Caribbean mainly west of 85W. This moisture will continue spreading across the Yucatan area through the next 24 hours. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 06N25W. The ITCZ continues westward from 06N25W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the boundaries between 16W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from NE Florida to across the NE Gulf to southern Mississippi. Scattered showers are associated with the front, forecast to slowly dissipate today. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of a 1015 mb high pressure located near 24N85W. This system extends a ridge toward the coast of Texas and is producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula enhancing convection. This activity will continue through the next 24 hours. Otherwise, ridging extending from the Atlc will prevail across the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scatterometer data along with surface observations show fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean while altimeter data indicate seas to near 11 ft with the strongest winds. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the central Caribbean with winds reaching near gale force at times in the S central Caribbean. Winds are expected to reach minimal gale-force by Fri night. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to fresh to strong at times in the Gulf of Honduras. A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean while another wave is exiting the west Caribbean and enhancing convection west of 85W. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for more details. SW winds ahead of an upper-level trough extending across the Straits of Florida into the Yucatan Peninsula is transporting abundant upper level moisture from Central America across the NW Caribbean into eastern Cuba. To the south, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted over the SW Caribbean, likely associated with the proximity of the monsoon trough south of 12N and west of 80W. This convective activity is affecting parts of Panama and Costa Rica. Moisture will remain high across this area over the next couple of days, keeping the likelihood of more convection. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends across the far NW portion of the forecast area and reaching northern Florida into the NE Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are along the frontal boundary. This front will linger through the next several days. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure centered near 23N46W and a 1025 mb high near 32N25W. The highs are expected to strengthen through late Fri. SAL imagery indicates an area of Saharan dust extending across the Atlantic to over the Lesser Antilles and behind the tropical wave located along 65W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA