000 AXNT20 KNHC 052359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 758 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A low amplitude tropical wave axis is along 40W and S of 12N moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. A tropical wave axis is along 64W and S of 17N, moving west across the eastern Caribbean at 15 kt. A surge of moisture associated with the wave is evident from TPW imagery. The Windward Islands reported showers in the vicinity with the wave passage, but at this time, the convection has diminished. A recent scatterometer pass indicates the wind shift related to the wave axis. The wave will cross S of Puerto Rico through the next 24 hours. Convection will be limited with the wave passage due to the presence of African dust over the NE Caribbean. A tropical wave axis is along 87W and S of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt across the W Caribbean and Central America. Abundant moisture is related to the wave based on TPW animation. The wave is generating scattered showers and isolated tstms over parts of northern Central America and the W Caribbean mainly west of 83W. Moisture from this wave will spread across the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues westward from 06N19W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the boundaries between 15W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from NE Florida to across the NE Gulf to southern Mississippi. A band of showers and thunderstorms is associated with the front, forecast to slowly dissipate through Wed. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of a 1018 mb high pressure located near 24N84W. This system extends a ridge toward the coast of Texas and is producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. A surface trough will develop along the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon, pushing W into the SW Gulf during the evening before dissipating. Fresh northeast to east winds will accompany this trough. Otherwise, ridging extending from the Atlc will prevail across the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scatterometer data along with surface observations show fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean while altimeter data indicate seas to near 11 ft with the strongest winds. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the central Caribbean with winds reaching near gale force at times in the S central Caribbean. Winds may increase to minimal gale force briefly Fri night. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to fresh to strong at times in the Gulf of Honduras. A pair of tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please, see Tropical Waves section for details. SW winds ahead of an upper level trough extending across the Straits of Florida into the Yucatan Peninsula is transporting abundant upper level moisture from Central America across the NW Caribbean into eastern Cuba. Scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms are noted over the SW Caribbean, likely associated with the proximity of the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ. This convective activity is affecting parts of Panama and Costa Rica. Moisture will remain high across this area over the next couple of days, keeping the likelihood of more convection. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends across the far NW portion of the forecast area and northern Florida into the NE Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and tstms is along the frontal boundary. This front will linger through the next several days. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge anchored by a nearly stationary 1022 mb high pressure centered near 32N25W. The high is expected to strengthen slightly across eastern waters Thu through Fri night. SAL imagery indicates an area of Saharan dust extending across the Atlantic to over the Lesser Antilles behind the tropical wave located along 64W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA/GR