000 AXNT20 KNHC 051720 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 120 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A low amplitude tropical wave axis is along 40W S of 12N moving west at 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ. A tropical wave axis along 61W/62W S of 16N is moving west across the eastern Caribbean at 15 kt. A surge of moisture associated with the wave is evident from TPW imagery. The Windward Islands are currently reporting showers in the vicinity with the wave passage. The wave will cross S of Puerto Rico today, and will reach Hispaniola on Wed. Convection will be limited with the wave passage due to the presence of African dust over the NE Caribbean. A recent scatterometer pass indicates the wind shift related to the wave axis. A tropical wave axis along 86W S of 20N is moving westward at 15 kt across the NW Caribbean and Central America. Abundant moisture is related to the wave based on TPW animation. The wave is generating scattered showers and isolated tstms over parts of northern Central America and the NW Caribbean. Moisture from this wave will spread across the Yucatan Peninsula late today. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near new to new. The ITCZ continues westward from new to new to 16n49w to the coast of South America near 13n51w. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-08N between 06W-15W. Scattered moderate is within about 120 nm S of the ITCZ axis between 23W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from NE Florida to across the NE Gulf to southern Mississippi. A band of showers and thunderstorms is associated with the front, forecast to slowly dissipate through Wed. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of a 1018 mb high pressure located near 24n83w. This system extends a ridge toward the coast of Texas and is producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. A surface trough will develop along the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon, pushing W into the SW Gulf during the evening before dissipating. Fresh northeast to east winds will accompany this trough. Otherwise, ridging extending from the Atlc will prevail across the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scatterometer data along with surface observations show fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean while altimeter data indicate seas to near 11 ft with the strongest winds. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the central Caribbean with winds reaching near gale force at times in the S central Caribbean. Winds may increase to minimal gale force briefly Fri night. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to fresh to strong at times in the Gulf of Honduras. A pair of tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please, see Tropical Waves section for details. SW winds ahead of an upper level trough extending across the Straits of Florida into the Yucatan Peninsula is transporting abundant upper level moisture from Central America across the NW Caribbean into eastern Cuba. Scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms are noted over the SW Caribbean, likely associated with the proximity of the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ. This convective activity is affecting parts of Panama and Costa Rica. Moisture will remain high across this area over the next couple of days, keeping the likelihood of more convective activity. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends across the far NW portion of the forecast area and northern Florida into the NE Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and tstms is along the frontal boundary. This front will linger through the next several days. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge anchored by a nearly stationary 1024 mb high pressure centered near new. The high is expected to strengthen slightly across eastern waters Thu through Fri night. SAL imagery indicates an area of Saharan dust extending across the Atlantic to over the Lesser Antilles behind the tropical wave located along 61W/62W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR