000 AXNT20 KNHC 050532 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 36W/37W S of 12N in the eastern Atlantic, moving west at 15 kt. TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture in the wave environment south of 10N. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ. A tropical wave axis along 60W S of 14N is moving west into the eastern Caribbean at 10-15 kt. A surge of moisture associated with the wave is evident from TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection is east of the wave near the coast of South America. Increased shower activity associated with this wave will reach the southern Windward Islands later today. A tropical wave axis along 83W S of 17N is moving westward at 10- 15 kt into Central America. Abundant moisture is related to the wave based on TPW animation. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is along the wave axis near the border of Costa Rica and Nicaragua south of 13N. The wave is also inducing a cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection in the eastern Pacific SW of Costa Rica. Showers from this wave will spread across the Central America today, and reach the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues westward from 08N18W to the coast of South America near 04N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 24W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle across Louisiana into eastern Texas. Scattered showers are noted along this frontal boundary. This front is expected to dissipate later today. Weak high pressure is centered near 25N88W. A trough will form over the western Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move westward overnight in the SW Gulf. Fresh northeast to east winds will accompany this trough. Easterly winds will increase over south-central waters and the Yucatan Channel Thu night and Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scatterometer data along with surface observations show fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean. Trades in the central Caribbean will increase to near gale force along the coast of Colombia Thu night and Friday. High pressure north of the area and lower pressure expected in the eastern Pacific, due to possible tropical cyclone formation, will allow east winds to increase to strong over the Gulf of Honduras Thu night and Fri. SW winds ahead of an upper level trough from southern Florida to Bay of Campeche is transporting abundant upper level moisture from Central America across the NW Caribbean into eastern Cuba. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak surface trough analyzed from 31N77W to central Florida will dissipate this morning. The region is dominated by a broad ridge anchored by a stationary 1024 mb high pressure centered near 32N25W. The high is expected to strengthen slightly across eastern waters Thu through Fri night. SAL imagery indicates an area of Saharan dust extending across the Atlantic to near the Lesser Antilles behind the tropical wave located along 60W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell