000 AXNT20 KNHC 050000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 35W south of 12N in the eastern Atlantic, moving west at 15 kt. TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture in the wave's environment, and the wave coincides with a trough at 700 mb. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ. A tropical wave axis along 58W S of 14N in the central Atlantic is moving west at 10 kt. A modest surge of moisture associated with the wave is evident from TPW imagery. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 08N-10N between 53W and Guyana. Increased shower activity associated with this wave will reach the Windward Islands early Tuesday. A tropical wave axis is along 81W S of 17N in the Caribbean Sea, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Abundant moisture is related to the wave based on TPW animation. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is between the wave axis and Costa Rica south of 11N. The wave is also inducing another cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection in the eastern Pacific. Showers from this wave will spread across the remainder of Central America tonight, and reach the Yucatan Peninsula late Tue. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues westward from 08N20W to 05N26W to 06N60W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within about 180 nm N of ITCZ axis between 41W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle across Louisiana into eastern Texas. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are noted along the frontal boundary. This front is expected to dissipate on Tue. 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 25N92W, with a ridge extending northwestward into Texas coastal waters. A trough will form over the western Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move westward across the SW Gulf during the overnight hours. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will accompany the trough. Easterly winds are expected to increase over the far south-central waters and in the entrance to the Yucatan Channel Thu night into Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scatterometer data along with surface observations show fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean. Trades in the central Caribbean will increase to near gale force along the coast of Colombia Thu night and Friday. High pressure north of the area and lower pressure expected in the eastern Pacific due to possible tropical cyclone formation, will allow east winds to increase to strong over the Gulf of Honduras Thu night and Fri. An upper-level trough extends from South Florida to the Bay of Campeche. SW wind flow ahead of the trough is transporting abundant mid-to-upper level moisture across northern Central America and the NW Caribbean into central Cuba and the central Bahamas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Low pressure centered near Savannah Georgia will move ENE tonight, dragging a stationary front to along 31N. It will then gradually dissipate through Thu. A surface trough is analyzed across the central Bahamas from 28N76W to 23N77W. The remainder of the Atlantic Ocean is under the influence of a broad ridge anchored by a stationary high pressure located just NW of the Madeira Islands near 33N23W. The high will strengthen slightly across the eastern waters Thu through Fri night. SAL imagery indicates an area of Saharan dust extending across the Atlantic to near the Lesser Antilles behind the tropical wave located along 58W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell