000 AXNT20 KNHC 041200 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 14N31W to 01N32W, moving westward at 20 kt. TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture in the wave's environment and model diagnostics show a trough at 700 mb. Scattered moderate convection is where the wave meets the ITCZ. A tropical wave is along 55W S of 14N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is depicted as a broad trough of moisture on TPW imagery. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 08N-10N between 53W and the coast of NW Guyana. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 78W S of 16N. This wave is moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is rather ill-defined at the surface at this time, and the axis extends into the EPAC region. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is ahead of the wave axis over the SW Caribbean. This is most likely due to the monsoon trough extending from the E Pacific. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 12N16W to 08N20W. The ITCZ extends from 08N20W to 04N29W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave along 31W/32W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within about 150 nm N of ITCZ axis between 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is over the N Gulf States, and extends from E Texas to a 1008 mb low pressure located over North Carolina. Scattered showers and tstms are noted along the frontal boundary. This front will move across the northern Gulf today before becoming stationary across the NE Gulf and northern Florida late tonight, and dissipating on Tue. Weak high pressure of 1019 mb is over the central Gulf near 25N88W, with a ridge extending west-northwestward to Texas adjacent waters. Light to gentle anticyclonic surface winds are over the Gulf with weakest winds near the center of the high. Scattered showers remain over the the Yucatan Peninsula. A trough will form over the western Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move westward across the SW Gulf during the overnight hours as weak high pressure remains in place. E winds are expected to increase over the far S central waters and in the entrance to the Yucatan Channel Thu night into Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail over the basin, with strongest winds along the coast of northern Colombia. Scattered showers remain over the NW Caribbean. Isolated moderate convection is over Central America from Belize to Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over Central America due to the monsoon trough south of 10N between 73W-85W. High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trades in the S central Caribbean, with mainly moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle to moderate over the NW Caribbean. The combination of the high pressure and pressures expected to lower to the west of Central America by the middle of the upcoming week will bring strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from 31N53W to 26N55W. Isolated showers are noted near the trough axis. To the east, the tail end of a cold front extends from 31N89W to 25N46W. A 1026 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 34N21W. A surface ridge extends SW from this high to near 21N58W. A cold front will move across the Carolinas into the western Atlantic today, and move S of 31N tonight. The tail end of the front will stall across the waters north of 28N Tue and dissipate Wed. Weak high pressure will continue to dominate elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR