000 AXNT20 KNHC 040423 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1223 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Fuego Volcano Eruption in Guatemala...An explosive volcanic ash emission occured around 03/1700 UTC. Satellite imagery showed ash reaching an elevation of 50,000 ft. Latest model guidance suggests that plumes of volcanic ash could reach the western Caribbean mainly west of 80W during the next 24 hours. Please refer to the latest volcanic ash advisory from NESDIS-SAB for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 1N30W to 01N31W, moving westward at 20 kt. TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture in the wave's environment and model diagnostics show a trough at 700 mb. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis S of 06N. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending from 14N54W to 00N53W, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is depicted as a broad trough of moisture on TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis S of 10N. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 78W S of 16N. This wave is moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is rather ill-defined at the surface at this time. Convection is noted over N Colombia, however, this is most likely due to the monsoon trough extending from the E Pacific. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 12N16W to 08N20W. The ITCZ extends from 08N20W to 04N29W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 04N32W to 05N44W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-07N between 34W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is over the N Gulf States from E Texas to the Florida Panhandle. Scattered moderate convection is along the front and the N Gulf of Mexico N of 29N. A 1018 mb high is centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico waters near 25N89W. Light to gentle anticyclonic surface winds are over the Gulf with weakest winds near the center of the high. Scattered showers remain over the the Yucatan Peninsula. In the upper levels, an upper-level low is centered over the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N91W. Upper-level diffluence is noted over Cuba and the Bahamas due to this low. High level volcanic ash will eventually move from Guatemala towards Cuba and the Bahamas. A weak cold front will move across the northern Gulf Mon morning before becoming stationary across the NE Gulf and northern Florida later on Mon and through Wed, dissipating by early Thu. A trough will form over the western Yucatan Peninsula each evening and move westward across the SW Gulf during the overnight hours through the period as the weak high pressure remains in place. E winds are expected to increase over the far S central waters and in the entrance to the Yucatan Channel on Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail over the basin, with strongest winds along the coast of northern Colombia. Scattered showers remain over the NW Caribbean. Isolated moderate convection is over Central America from Belize to Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over Central America due to the monsoon trough south of 10N between 73W-85W. High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trades in the S central Caribbean with mainly moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle to moderate over the NW Caribbean. The combination of the high pressure and pressures expected to lower to the west of Central America by the middle of the upcoming week will bring strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras. Fuego Volcano in Guatemala at 14.3N 90.9W is currently erupting. Plumes of volcanic ash mixed with cloudiness may move over portions of the western Caribbean through Mon afternoon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from 31N53W to 26N58W. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm of the trough axis. To the east, the tail end of a cold front extends from 32N39W to 25N47W. A 1028 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 34N20W. A surface ridge axis extends SW from this high to 25N40W with mostly fair weather. A cold front will move across the Carolinas into the western Atlantic Mon, and move S of 31N Mon night. The tail end of the front will stall across the waters north of 28N Tue through Wed night before becoming diffuse on Thu. Otherwise, the weak high pressure will remain across the basin during the period. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa