000 AXNT20 KNHC 031723 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 123 PM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 13N26W to 00N26W, moving westward at about 15 kt. TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture in the wave's environment and model diagnostics show a trough at 700 mb. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis mainly south of 06N. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending from 14N50W to 00N50W, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is depicted as a broad trough of moisture on TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection associated with the wave prevails south of 09N. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 75W and south of 16N. This wave is moving westward at around 15 kt. The wave is rather ill-defined at the surface at this time. No deep convection is associated with this wave. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring along its southern portion over northern Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 07N49W. Scattered showers are noted along both boundaries. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 mb high is centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico waters near 25N87W. Light to gentle anticyclonic surface winds are over the Gulf with weakest winds near the center of the high. In the upper levels, an upper-level low is centered over the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N91W. Upper-level diffluence is noted over Cuba and the Bahamas due to this low. Surface troughing will form over the western Yucatan each evening and drift over the southwest Gulf overnight through Wed. A weak cold front will enter the northern Gulf Mon morning and move across the northern Florida Peninsula and the NE Gulf through Tue morning. The front will then stall across central Florida before dissipating late Wed. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge will extend from the southeast Gulf to Texas the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail over the basin, with strongest winds along the coast of northern Colombia. Scattered showers remain west of 80W enhanced by a diffluent flow aloft. Scattered moderate convection is over Central America due to the monsoon trough south of 10N between 78W-83W. High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean over the next several days, with mainly moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle to moderate over the northwest Caribbean. As pressures lower west of Central America starting the middle of next week, strong winds will expand from the central Caribbean to the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 31N56W to 28N56W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough. To the east, a 1016 mb low is centered near 31N43W with a cold front from the low to 28N45W, then becoming stationary to 26N49W. A 1027 mb high is centered near 35N22W. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin. Surface ridging will prevail from the central Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico through early next week. A cold front will move across the Carolinas into the western Atlantic Mon morning, crossing south of 31N by Mon evening. The tail end of the front will stall across the waters north of 28N Tue through Tue night before becoming diffuse on Wed. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA