000 AXNT20 KNHC 031200 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 14N24W to 07N25W to 02N25W, moving westward at about 15 kt. TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture in the wave's environment and model diagnostics show a trough at 700 mb. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending along 48W/49W from 14N to 01N, moving westward at 25-30 kt. The wave is depicted as a broad trough of moisture on TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection associated with the wave is along the axis within the ITCZ as described above. A low amplitude tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 73W S of 17N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. The wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. No deep convection is associated with this wave. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring along its southern portion over northern Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 13N16W to 08N20W. The ITCZ extends W of the tropical wave that is along the position from 14N24W to 07N25W to 02N25W to 04N35W to 05N47W. It resumes just to the west of the tropical wave that is along 48W/49W from 14N to 01N to inland the coast of S America at 04N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ west of 50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 47W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 mb high is centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico waters near 26N87W. Light to gentle anticyclonic surface winds are over the Gulf with weakest winds near the center of the high. In the upper levels, a large upper-level low is centered over the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N90W. Upper level diffluence is noted over Cuba and the Bahamas due to this low. Surface troughing will form over the western Yucatan each evening and drift over the southwest Gulf overnight through Wed. A weak cold front will enter the northern Gulf Mon morning and move across the northern Florida Peninsula and the NE Gulf through Tue morning. The front will then stall across central Florida before dissipating late Wed. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge will extend from the SE Gulf to Texas the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail over the Caribbean, with strongest winds along the coast of northern Colombia. Scattered showers remain over over E Cuba E of 80W. Scattered showers are also over Central America from Belize to Costa Rica. To the south, the monsoon trough along 09N is enhancing scattered moderate convection south of 12N between 77W-85W. High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trades in the S central Caribbean over the next several days, with mainly moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle to moderate over the NW Caribbean. As pressures lower W of Central America starting the middle of next week, strong winds will expand from the central Caribbean to the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N60W to 27N60W. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm of the trough. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 25N50W to a 1016 mb low near 29N45W to 31N42W. No convection is related to these features at this time. A 1026 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 36N22W. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin. Surface ridging will prevail from the central Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. A cold front will move across the Carolinas into the western Atlantic Mon morning, crossing S of 31N Mon evening. The tail end of the front will stall across the waters north of 28N Tue through Tue night before becoming diffuse on Wed. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA/MF