000 AXNT20 KNHC 030428 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1228 AM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The forecast that is valid until 03/1200 UTC has a northerly near-gale or gale in zone AGADIR. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 14N22W to 02N23W, moving westward at 15 kt. TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture in the wave's environment and model diagnostics show a trough at 700 mb. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending from 13N46W to 00N47W, moving westward at 25-30 kt. The wave is depicted as a broad trough of moisture on TPW imagery. The wave is void of convection at this time. A low amplitude tropical wave extends over the southeast Caribbean with axis from 15N70W to 03N70W, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis mainly over Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 13N16W to 08N21W. The ITCZ extends W of a tropical wave from 06N24W to 04N35W to 05N46W. The ITCZ resumes west of another tropical wave from 05N48W to the coast of South America near 03N51W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 mb high is centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico waters near 26N87W. 05-15 kt anticyclonic surface winds are over the Gulf with weakest winds near the center of the high. Scattered moderate convection is over the Florida Panhandle and over N Florida N of 29N. Similar convection is over the Yucatan Peninsula N of 18N. Scattered showers are over the Straits of Florida and W Cuba. In the upper levels, a large upper level low is centered over the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N90W. Upper level diffluence is noted over Cuba and the Bahamas due to this low. Surface troughing will form over the western Yucatan each evening and drift over the southwest Gulf overnight through Wed. A weak cold front will enter the northern Gulf Mon morning and move across the northern Florida Peninsula and the NE Gulf through Tue morning. The front will then stall across central Florida before dissipating late Wed. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge will extend from the SE Gulf to Texas the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail over the Caribbean, with strongest winds along the coast of northern Colombia. Scattered showers remain over over E Cuba E of 80W. Scattered showers are also over Central America from Belize to Costa Rica. To the south, the monsoon trough along 09N is enhancing scattered moderate convection south of 12N between 77W-85W. High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trades in the S central Caribbean over the next several days, with mainly moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle to moderate over the NW Caribbean. As pressures lower W of Central America starting the middle of next week, strong winds will expand from the central Caribbean to the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1018 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 26N70W. A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N62W to 26N60W. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm of the trough. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 32N39W to a 1016 mb low near 29N47W, to 26N48W to 26N53W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1029 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 37N23W. A surface ridge axis extends SW from this high to 20N50W. Surface ridging will prevail from the central Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. A cold front will move across the Carolinas into the western Atlantic Mon morning, crossing S of 31N Mon evening. The tail end of the front will stall across the waters north of 28N Tue through Tue night before becoming diffuse on Wed. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa