000 AXNT20 KNHC 030003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 803 PM EDT Sat Jun 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The forecast that is valid until 03/1200 UTC has a northerly near-gale or gale in zone AGADIR. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 14N21W to 03N21W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture in the wave's environment and model diagnostics show a trough at 700 mb. Scattered showers are noted within 180 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending from 13N40W to 00N41W, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is depicted as a broad trough of moisture on TPW imagery. The wave is void of convection at this time. A low amplitude tropical wave extends over the southeast Caribbean with axis from 14N68W to 03N68W, moving westward at 10 kt. The wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis mainly over Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 14N16W to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 05N39W. The ITCZ then resumes west of a tropical wave from 05N43W to the coast of South America near 03N51W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 mb high is centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico waters near 27N87W. 10 kt anticyclonic surface winds are over the Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is over the Florida Panhandle and over N Florida N of 29N. Similar convection is over the Yucatan Peninsula N of 18N. Scattered showers are over the Straits of Florida and W Cuba. In the upper levels, a large upper level low is centered over the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N90W. Upper level diffluence is noted over Cuba and the Bahamas due to this low. Surface troughing will form over the western Yucatan each evening and drift over the southwest Gulf overnight through Wed. A weak cold front will enter the northern Gulf Mon morning and move across the northern Florida Peninsula and the NE Gulf through Tue morning. The front will then stall across central Florida before dissipating late Wed. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge will extend from the SE Gulf to Texas the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail over the Caribbean, with strongest winds along the coast of northern Colombia. Clusters of scattered moderate convection is over E Cuba E of 80W. Scattered showers are over Central America from Belize to Costa Rica. To the south, the monsoon trough along 10N is enhancing scattered moderate convection south of 12N between 77W-85W. High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trades in the S central Caribbean over the next several days, with mainly moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle to moderate over the NW Caribbean. As pressures lower W of Central America starting the middle of next week, strong winds will expand from the central Caribbean to the Gulf of Honduras. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N64W to 26N60W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 32N40W to 28N49W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1028 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 37N23W. A surface ridge axis extends SW from this high to 23N46W. Surface ridging will prevail from the central Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. A cold front will move across the Carolinas into the western Atlantic Mon morning, crossing S of 31N Mon evening. The tail end of the front will stall across the waters north of 28N Tue through Tue night before becoming diffuse on Wed. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa