000 AXNT20 KNHC 021719 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 119 PM EDT Sat Jun 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The forecast that is valid until 03/0000 UTC has a northerly near-gale or gale in zones AGADIR. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 15N18W to 04N18W. TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture in the wave's environment and model diagnostics show a trough at 700 mb. At this time, scattered showers are noted south of 08N between 16W-22W. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending from 14N36W to 00N36W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is depicted as a broad trough of moisture on TPW imagery. The wave is void of convection at this time. A low amplitude tropical wave extends over the southeast Caribbean with axis from 14N66W to 03N66W, moving westward at 10 kt. The wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. Scattered showers are noted in the wave's environment mainly over Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 12N16W to 10N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 04N33W. The ITCZ then resumes west of a tropical wave near 03N38W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-08N and east of 26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1015 mb high is centered over the eastern Gulf waters near 27N84W. With this, surface ridging covers the whole basin. Scattered showers are over the SE Gulf, W Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula, due to an upper-level low centered over the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N89W. Troughing will form over the western Yucatan each evening and drift over the southwest Gulf overnight through Tue. A frontal trough will cross the NE gulf Sun into Mon with moderate to locally fresh SW winds. Elsewhere, ridging across the northeastern to eastern Gulf will drift SW to the central Gulf late Sat and prevail through most of the remainder period supporting gentle to moderate winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail over the Caribbean, with strongest winds along the coast of northern Colombia. Scattered showers are over the NW Caribbean, Cuba, and the Yucatan Channel enhanced by the presence of an upper-level low centered north of the Yucatan Peninsula. To the south, the monsoon trough along 10N is enhancing convection south of 12N between 78W-81W. High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain pulsing fresh to strong winds in the S central Caribbean through mid next week. Moderate to fresh trades will dominate elsewhere, except in the NW Caribbean where winds will be gentle to moderate. Winds will increase to fresh to strong briefly in the Gulf of Honduras by Tue night through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening front was analyzed as a surface trough that extends from 31N64W to 27N62W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough. To the east, a 1018 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 26N70W. A cold front passes through 32N38W to 25N54W. Scattered showers are prevailing along the front. A 1029 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 37N23W. A surface ridge axis extends SW from this high to 22N47W. Surface ridging will prevail across the western portion of the basin ahead of the next frontal boundary that will move across the Carolinas into the western Atlantic early next week. The front will stall across the waters north of 28N through Tue before becoming diffuse late Wed. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA