000 AXNT20 KNHC 021145 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 745 AM EDT Sat Jun 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The forecast that is valid until 03/0000 UTC has a northerly near gale or gale in zones AGADIR and TARFAYA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis, with axis extending from 15N17W to 04N16W. TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture in the wave's environment and model diagnostics show a trough at 700 mb. At this time, scattered showers are noted south of 08N between 14W-20W. A tropical wave is along 34W and south of 14N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is depicted as a broad trough of moisture on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is void of convection at this time. A low amplitude tropical wave is along 65W and south of 14N, moving westward at 10 kt. The wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. Scattered showers are noted in the wave's environment mainly over Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Guinea near 11N16W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 04N26W to 04N33W. The ITCZ then resumes west of a tropical wave near 04N36W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-08N and east of 25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 26N70W. A ridge axis extends to the Gulf of Mexico along 26N to 90W. Scattered showers are over the eastern portion of the Florida Peninsula. More scattered showers are over the SE Gulf, W Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula. An upper level trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with an embedded upper level low centered over the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N89W. Troughing will form over the western Yucatan each evening and drift over the southwest Gulf overnight through Tue. A frontal trough will cross the NE gulf Sun into Mon with moderate to locally fresh SW winds. Elsewhere, ridging across the northeastern to eastern Gulf will drift SW to the central Gulf late Sat and prevail through most of the remainder period supporting gentle to moderate winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered showers are over the NW Caribbean, Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula. The monsoon trough is along 08N between Costa Rica and Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 11N. An upper level trough is over the W Caribbean W of 81W. A good amount of upper level diffluence is noted over Cuba enhancing the showers. An upper level ridge is over the central Caribbean between 70W-81W. An upper level trough is over the E Caribbean. High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trades in the S central Caribbean through mid next week. Moderate to fresh trades will dominate elsewhere, except in the NW Caribbean where winds will be gentle to moderate. Winds will increase to fresh to strong briefly in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1017 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 26N70W. Another 1017 mb high is centered near 29N57W. A cold front passes through 32N39W to 26N55W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1029 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 38N23W. A surface ridge axis extends SW from this high to 22N43W. Over the W Atlantic the surface highs will dissipate today, however, surface ridging will prevail ahead of the next frontal boundary to move across the Carolinas into the western Atlantic early next week. The front will stall across the waters north of 28N through Tue before becoming diffuse late Wed. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA/MF