000 AXNT20 KNHC 020009 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 809 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The forecast that is valid until 03/0000 UTC has a northerly near gale or gale in zones AGADIR and TARFAYA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W from 12N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is depicted as a broad trough of moisture on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is void of convection. An E Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W from 18N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-11N between 61W-64W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Guinea near 11N15W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 05N27W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N30W to 01N38W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-09N between 10W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 27N72W. A ridge axis extends to the Gulf of Mexico along 27N to 90W. Scattered moderate convection is over the eastern portion of the Florida Peninsula. Isolated moderate convection is over the SE Gulf. An upper level trough passes through the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, southward beyond Guatemala and El Salvador in Central America. A surface trough is expected to form in the western part of the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, and then drift across the SW Gulf of Mexico during the early morning hours, through early next week. A frontal trough will move across the NE Gulf of Mexico late this weekend with fresh SW winds. A surface ridge in the northern Gulf of Mexico will drift S, into the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend supporting gentle to moderate winds through the remainder of the period. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Isolated moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean, Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula. The monsoon trough is along 09N74W beyond 08N84W. Numerous strong convection is iver the SW Caribbean S of 11N. An upper level trough passes through the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, southward beyond Guatemala and El Salvador in Central America. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the eastern Pacific Ocean, moving around a 04N81W cyclonic circulation center. High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras through today, and in the S central Caribbean Sea for the next several days. Expect moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1018 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 27N72W. Another 1018 mb high pressure center is near 32N60W. A cold front passes through 32N43W to 28N50W, to a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 27N54W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, are from 24N northward between 35W and 70W. Isolated moderate rainshowers also are from 20N northward from 73W westward. A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb high over the E Atlantic near 38N21W, to 21N50W. A frontal boundary is forecast to move across the Carolinas into the western Atlantic Ocean early next week. The front will stall across the waters north of 28N through Tuesday, before becoming diffuse. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa