000 AXNT20 KNHC 011202 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 802 AM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed along 26W/27W from 12N southward, moving W 15 knots. The wave is depicted as a broad trough of moisture on SSMI TPW imagery. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers, that are in the ITCZ precipitation, are from 03N to 07N between 20W and 30W. A SE Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W from 13N southward, moving W 15 knots. The wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. Upper level SW wind flow is moving through the area of the tropical wave. rainshowers are possible from 13N southward to land between 60W and 63W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 06N26W, from 05N28W to 03N40W, to the Equator along 48W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 03N to 08N between 03W and 25W, and from 06N to 08N between 51W and 56W. isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough passes across the Florida Panhandle, through the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of Honduras. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico and across Florida, south of 29N and east of 90W. A surface trough is expected to form in the western part of the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, and then drift across the SW Gulf of Mexico during the early morning hours. A frontal trough will move across the NE Gulf of Mexico late this weekend with fresh SW winds. A surface ridge in the northern Gulf of Mexico will drift S, into the central Gulf of Mexico during this weekend, supporting gentle to moderate winds through the remainder of the period. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the Gulf of Honduras into Guatemala. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are north of Honduras and west of 80W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the coastal waters of Costa Rica and Panama. High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the S central Caribbean Sea for the next several days, and in the Gulf of Honduras through late tonight. Expect moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N48W to 29N52W to a 1014 mb low pressure center near 28N58W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate rain showers, are within 90 nm south and southeast of the frontal boundary. A surface ridge spans much of the east-central Atlantic north of 20N. A 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 29N71W. The high will weaken this weekend, and the surface ridge will drift southward. A surface trough will move off the Carolinas into the western Atlantic Ocean this weekend. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 28N72W, to the west of a frontal boundary that currently is moving through the central Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure will dissipate into early next week as it shifts southward as a ridge. This will be happening ahead of a frontal boundary that is forecast to move across the Carolinas into the western Atlantic Ocean early next week. The front will stall across the waters north of 28N through Tuesday, before becoming diffuse. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT