000 AXNT20 KNHC 311205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 21W/22W, from 13N southward. The wave is well depicted on SSMI TPW imagery. Dry Saharan air is keeping the area free of convection. A tropical wave is along 56W S of 12N moving W at 15 kt. The wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is south of 08N within 120 nm west of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues west of the tropical wave along 20W from 07N21W to 02N32W to the coast of South America near 02N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from the equator to 04N between 28W and 36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Fair weather prevails across the the basin tonight, as isolated showers in the eastern Gulf have dissipated during the past 6-8 hours. Winds are from the SE at 10-20 kt, and seas are 2-4 ft. A large upper level high is centered over southern Mexico near 21N103W, producing northerly upper level flow over the western Gulf. A sharp upper level trough is over the E Gulf with axis along 88W. A surface trough is expected to form in the western part of the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, and then drift across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the night, through Sunday. A surface ridge in the northern Gulf of Mexico will maintain gentle to moderate SE winds through the remainder of the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the coastal plains and coastal waters of Central America from Panama along 81W to the east central coast of Nicaragua. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover Central America and the waters of the NW Caribbean Sea from 13N northward from 80W westward. Southerly winds at speeds of 5 to 15 knots have been prevailing across the western Caribbean Sea, and 15 to 20 knot trade winds were in the central and eastern Caribbean Sea, to the east of 80W. An upper level trough remains in the E Caribbean Sea with strong subsidence. High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the S central Caribbean Sea, and in the Gulf of Honduras, with mainly moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere, during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal boundary is in the central Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends from a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 31N52W, to 29N57W, to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is near 30N60W. The cold front continues to 29N61W, and northwestward beyond 32N68W. A surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high pressure center that is near 31N27W, to 24N42W. A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 28N70W. A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 28N70W, to the west of a cold front that is moving through the central Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure center will dissipate into early next week. A surface ridge eventually will move southward. A surface trough will be moving across the Carolinas into the western Atlantic Ocean. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT