000
AXNT20 KNHC 310000
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Wed May 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Isolated showers over western Cuba will persist overnight. 
Localized flooding of low-lying areas and the potential for 
landslides in rugged terrain is still possible in western Cuba 
tonight, and conditions are expected to improve Thursday.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave moving W off the coast of W Africa at 15 kt is 
along 18W S of 14N. The wave is well depicted on SSMI TPW 
imagery. Dry Saharan air is keeping the area free of convection.

A tropical wave is along 53W S of 13N moving W at 15 kt. The 
wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. 
Isolated moderate convection is south of 08N within 150 nm west 
of the wave axis. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
     
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W 
to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues west of the tropical wave along 
18W from 07N20W to 02N31W to 02N45W to the coast of South 
America near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 
nm of the ITCZ west of 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Isolated moderate convection remains over the eastern Gulf of 
Mexico E of 86W including the Straits of Florida. The remainder 
of the Gulf has mostly fair weather. Winds are predominately 
from the SE at 10-20 kt, and seas are 3 ft or less.

In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over S
Mexico near 21N103W producing northerly upper level flow over the
W Gulf. A sharp upper level trough is over the E Gulf with axis
along 87W. 

Showers and thunderstorms will persist over the eastern Gulf 
this evening. By late Thursday, troughing will form over the 
western Yucatan each evening and drift over the southwest Gulf 
overnight through Sun. Elsewhere, surface ridging across the 
northern Gulf will maintain gentle to moderate SE winds for the 
next five days. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated moderate convection is along the coast of Honduras from 
13N-17N between 82W-84W and over Central America from Nicaragua 
to Panama. 5-15 kt southerly winds prevail across the western 
Caribbean, and 15-20 kt trade winds are over the central and 
eastern Caribbean E of 80W.

In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the E 
Caribbean with strong subsidence. 

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to 
strong trade winds over the S central Caribbean with moderate to 
fresh trades elsewhere the next several days. Strong E to SE 
winds are possible over the Gulf of Honduras this afternoon 
through Fri between the Atlantic ridge and troughing west of the 
area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Scattered moderate showers are north of 28N between 52W and 68W.
A broad ridge across the central Atlantic is anchored by a 1024 
mb high centered near 30N30W, and extends westward along 29N to 
northern Florida. High pressure is expected to develop north of 
the Bahamas starting tonight, while a cold front moves into the 
waters north of 26N and east of 70W through Thu, then stall and 
dissipating along 25N Fri. The ridge will shift south Sat ahead 
of a trough moving through the Carolinas. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Mundell