000 AXNT20 KNHC 301735 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 135 PM EDT Wed May 30 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Isolated moderate convection with scattered showers continue over western Cuba. Although rainfall totals are lower than observed during the previous 3-4 days, any additional rain will contribute to current flooding conditions. Flooding of low-lying areas and the potential for landslides in rugged terrain will remain a threat in western Cuba today. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is just off the coast of W Africa along 17W S of 14N, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is well depicted on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. An area of dry dusty air is, however, N and W of the wave as shown on Saharan Air Layer imagery. The wave is presently void of convection. A tropical wave is along 52W S of 13N moving W at 15 kt. The wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is within 150 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 02N30W to 02N43W to the coast of South America near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Widely scattered moderate convection remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico E of 85W to include Florida, and the Straits of Florida. The remainder of the Gulf has mostly fair weather. Winds are predominately from the SE at 10-20 kt, and seas are 4 ft or less. In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over S Mexico near 21N103W producing northerly upper level flow over the W Gulf. A sharp upper level trough is over the E Gulf with axis along 87W. Showers and thunderstorms will persist over the eastern Gulf through late today. By late Thu, troughing will form over the western Yucatan each evening and drift over the southwest Gulf overnight through Sun. Elsewhere, surface ridging across the northern Gulf will maintain gentle to moderate SE winds for the next five days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate to islated strong convection is along the coast of E Honduras from 13N-17N between 82W-84W. Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is over Central America from Nicaragua to Panama. 5-15 kt southerly winds are over the W Caribbean, and 15-20 kt trade winds are over the central and E Caribbean E of 80W. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the NW Caribbean. A ridge is over the central Caribbean. An upper level trough is over the E Caribbean with strong subsidence. High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the S central Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere the next several days. Strong E to SE winds are possible over the Gulf of Honduras this afternoon through Fri between the high pressure and troughing west of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Isolated moderate convection with scattered showers are over the W Atlantic W of 76W. A broad surface ridge across the east-central Atlantic is anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 29N37W and a 1025 mb high near 31N28W. A surface ridge axis extends W from the highs along 29N to N Florida. A high pressure center will develop northwest of the northern Bahamas starting later today as a cold front moves into the waters north of 26N and east of 70W through Thu, before stalling and dissipating along 25N Fri. The high pressure center will dissipate and the ridge will shift south Sat ahead of a trough moving through the Carolinas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa