000 AXNT20 KNHC 301200 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed May 30 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Isolated moderate convection with scattered showers continue over western Cuba. Although rainfall totals are lower than observed during the previous 3-4 days, any additional rain will contribute to current flooding conditions. Widespread flooding of low-lying areas and the potential for landslides in rugged terrain will remain a serious threat in western Cuba today. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 50W S of 13N moving W at 15 kt. The wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is within 150 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 01N33W to 01N48W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Widely scattered moderate convection remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico E of 85W to include Florida, and the Straits of Florida. The remainder of the Gulf has mostly fair weather. Winds are predominately from the SE at 10-20 kt, and seas are 4 ft or less. In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over S Mexico near 21N103W producing northerly upper level flow over the W Gulf. A sharp upper level trough is over the E Gulf with axis along 87W. Expect a broad surface ridge along 28N to maintain generally fair weather after Friday across the region. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate to islated strong convection is along the coast of E Honduras from 13N-17N between 82W-84W. Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is over Central America from Nicaragua to Panama. 5-15 kt southerly winds are over the W Caribbean, and 15-20 kt trade winds are over the central and E Caribbean E of 80W. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the NW Caribbean. A ridge is over the central Caribbean. An upper level trough is over the E Caribbean with strong subsidence. Surface high pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the S central Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Fresh E to SE winds are possible over the Gulf of Honduras by late Thu between the high pressure and troughing west of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Isolated moderate convection with scattered showers are over the W Atlantic W of 76W. A broad surface ridge across the east-central Atlantic is anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 30N38W and a 1025 mb high near 33N22W. Moderate trade winds are expected south of the ridge the next several days. A cold front will reach near 30N in the central Atlantic Thursday. The trailing portion of the front will move east Friday, with isolated convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa