000 AXNT20 KNHC 300000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Tue May 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Scattered moderate showers continue over central and western Cuba, but rainfall totals are significantly lower than observed during the previous 3-4 days. Widespread flooding of low-lying areas and the potential for landslides in rugged terrain will remain a serious threat in Cuba through Wed morning. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 47W-48W S of 13N moving W at 15 kt. The wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 NM of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N14W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 02N30W to 02N47W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ axis W of 22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate convection remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico E of 87W from convergence into the circulation of what is left of Alberto in Alabama near 34N87W. Winds and seas in the NE Gulf of Mexico will continue to diminish overnight as the low moves further inland. Scattered moderate convection is over the Straits of Florida from tropical moisture advecting N from Cuba and the Caribbean Sea. The western Gulf in contrast has mostly fair weather. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is S of Cuba from 16N-20N between 81W-83W. Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is over Central America from E Honduras to Panama. 5-15 kt southerly winds are over the W Caribbean, and 15-20 kt trade winds are over the central and E Caribbean E of 80W. Of significance in the upper levels, a ridge is producing northerly flow from Nicaragua to beyond Cuba driving convection N. The return flow is driving upper level moisture S from the S Bahamas to Haiti to N Colombia. High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the S central Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Strong E to SE winds are possible over the Gulf of Honduras by late Thu between the high pressure and troughing west of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Isolated moderate convection is between the Bahamas and Cuba. A broad surface ridge across the east-central Atlantic is anchored by 1026 mb highs centered near 30N36W and 32N29W. Moderate trade winds are expected south of the ridge the next several days. A cold front will reach near 30N in the central Atlantic Thursday. The trailing portion of the front will move east Friday, with isolated convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell